Source: Huatai Futures Author: Huatai Futures
Research report text
【Strategy Summary】
The G7 determined the upper limit of the export price of Russian crude oil, and the oil price was consolidated at a low level; the anti-epidemic policy adjusted the domestic demand and expected it to be better. The new production capacity of PX is released slowly, the recent production and sales of polyester are good, and the short-term TA decline may slow down.
[core point of view]
Market analysis:
The PX processing fee is US$256/ton (+25), and the recent fluctuations are upward. The 750,000 tons of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical was under maintenance for 3 months, and it is expected to resume in December. Many sets of equipment are in the state of reduction, including Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 9 million tons of reduction to 75%-80%, Qingdao Lidong’s 1 million tons of reduction to 65% in early November, and Fujian United Petrochemical’s reduction to 65%-75%. , CNOOC Huizhou dropped to 70% – 80%, Jiujiang Petrochemical 900,000 tons recently dropped to 55%, and Shenghong’s 2 million tons of new equipment increased the negative to about 60% since last week. For the time being, the release of new domestic devices may be slow, and no new production capacity may be put into production in December. Recently, the production and sales of polyester are slightly better, which also gives some support.
The TA basis is 115 yuan/ton (-40), and the basis has dropped to a lower level; the processing fee is 353 yuan/ton (-172). Fuhai creates 50% of the load of 4.5 million tons, Sichuan can invest 80% of the load of 1 million tons, and Zhongtai Petrochemical 80% of the load. At the same time, 2.25 million tons of Yisheng Dahua, 2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo, 2.2 million tons of Hengli, 1.1 million tons of Yingshili, and 750,000 tons of Yadong Petrochemical are all in a parking state. PX is tight and combined with benefits and shipment considerations, TA starts or goes down, new equipment has not yet been put into production, downstream polyester production continues to decrease, and the accumulation of warehouses is expected to still exist. Recently, the production and sales of polyester have improved, and the production reduction may have slowed down. The supply and demand are still revised, and the decline may slow down in the short term. Focus on bottom-up feedback.
Terminal, the spot price of TA fell within the day, the volume of transactions increased, the cost of polyester dropped sharply, the epidemic policy adjustments in many places in China, the load of polyester filaments fell to a low level, and the downstream concentrated just needed replenishment. However, at present, the inventory pressure of polyester filaments is relatively high. Before the Spring Festival, it is still mainly going to warehouses. The short-term price is relatively firm, but there is still a downward trend.
【Strategy】
(1)unilateral: Cautiously see more. The trend of crude oil is weak, and the possibility of further decline is weak; internal demand is expected to increase, processing fees will continue to rise, and the weak downstream trend is expected to be improved.
(2)intertemporal arbitrage: wait and see.
【risk】
The price of crude oil fluctuated violently, the production of Shenghong PX increased, and the speed of polyester decreased.
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