Home » Daqo Energy’s performance forecast for last year has more than quadrupled, raising tens of billions of funds to “hardly resist” the polysilicon surplus crisis_Stock Channel_Securities Star

Daqo Energy’s performance forecast for last year has more than quadrupled, raising tens of billions of funds to “hardly resist” the polysilicon surplus crisis_Stock Channel_Securities Star

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(Original title: Daqo Energy’s performance pre-expanded more than four times last year and raised tens of billions of funds to “hardly resist” the polysilicon surplus crisis)

Financial Associated Press (Hefei, reporter Liu Mengran) news,Looking back on 2021, there is no doubt about the high prosperity of the photovoltaic industry, but the differentiation of performance is also a fact. An observer of the photovoltaic industry told a reporter from the Financial Associated Press that under the expectation of a tight balance between supply and demand, the “good days” of silicon companies will likely continue in 2022, but the looming surplus crisis will impact profits to a certain extent. level.

The main product of Daqo Energy (688303.SH) is high-purity polysilicon, which is the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain. The announcement shows that due to maintaining full-load production last year, production and sales have increased compared with the same period last year, so the company has achieved a significant increase in performance. The company expects a net profit of 5.6 billion to 5.8 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 436.69%-455.86%. Net profit was 5.58 billion yuan to 5.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 435.63% to 454.83%.

In addition, Daqo Energy, which has only been on the market for half a year, also put forward a fixed increase plan of 11 billion yuan that night, which will be used for the project with an annual output of 100,000 tons of high-purity silicon-based materials and to supplement working capital. Industry analysts believe that the N-type benefit in the future is that the theoretical efficiency will be higher, but the current cost has not been significantly reduced. Under the expectation of polysilicon surplus, Daqo Energy will continue to expand, or there may be certain risks.

Fourth-quarter results drop

It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of last year, under the multiple influences of increased production capacity and the game of supply and demand, the price of silicon materials declined, which affected the profits of Daqo Energy. The financial report showed that the company’s Q3 net profit was 2.312 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, the Q4 net profit is expected to be 1.127 billion yuan. RMB-1.327 billion, down 43%-51% month-on-month.

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Long before the dual-carbon goal was set, the photovoltaic industry has experienced large-scale expansion in many links of the industrial chain under the direction of production capacity. However, the expansion of production is mostly concentrated in the middle and downstream links. Polysilicon is limited by the high production technology threshold and complex process, and the expansion speed is not as fast as the upstream.

Judging from the price trend of silicon material, in 2021, it will rise from about 80 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to over 270 yuan/kg in October of that year, an increase of more than 2 times. After a brief adjustment in late December last year, polysilicon is currently gaining momentum again. According to PVInfoLink, the polysilicon dense material has recently risen to 234 yuan/KG, up 1.7% from last week. The analysis believes that the output of some domestic silicon material enterprises’ expansion projects originally planned to be delayed by the end of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, and the release of the slope from the start of production to production will lead to the short-term domestic production being lower than expected.

However, according to the plan for the implementation of new production capacity, the inflection point of silicon materials may appear at the end of the second quarter of this year. According to the statistics of the Silicon Industry Branch, it is expected that by the end of 2022, the domestic polysilicon production capacity will reach more than 860,000 tons/year, an increase of 340,000 tons/year from the previous year, including 110,000 tons/year of GCL-Poly (Jiangsu Zhongneng Granular Silicon , Leshan GCL Granular Silicon), Xinte Energy 20,000 tons/year, Xinjiang Daquan 40,000 tons/year, Yongxiang Co., Ltd. 120,000-150,000 tons/year (Inner Mongolia Tongwei Phase II, Yongxiang New Energy Phase II, Yunnan Tongwei Phase I), Asia Silicon Industry 30,000 tons/year and other subtotals of 20,000 tons/year.

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In this regard, Daqo Energy also reminded that with the release and continuous expansion of new production capacity of Tongwei, GCL-Poly, Xinte Energy, Dongfang Hope and the company, the supply and demand relationship of silicon materials may change in the future.

It is worth mentioning that the sense of crisis of excess silicon material is more obvious in the capital market. On January 25, Daqo Energy fell sharply at the opening. As of 10:20 a.m. that day, the stock price was quoted at 50.36 yuan per share, down 5.57%, and compared with the closing price of 91.77 yuan per share in September last year, a drop of more than 40% , with a market value of 96.943 billion yuan.

Fundraising to increase the size of N-type silicon material

In fact, Daqo Energy has made big investments recently. On December 20 last year, the company announced that it planned to invest 33.25 billion yuan to build four major projects in Baotou City, namely 300,000 tons/year high-purity industrial silicon project, 200,000 tons/year high-purity polysilicon, and 200,000 tons/year organic silicon project. Silicon project, 21,000 tons/year semiconductor polysilicon project.

However, under the guidance of high profits, the competition for capacity expansion around polysilicon is still accelerating. On the day of the release of the performance forecast, Daqo Energy announced the 2022 fixed increase plan. The total amount of funds to be raised will not exceed 11 billion yuan, which will be used for projects with an annual output of 100,000 tons of high-purity silicon-based materials and to supplement working capital.

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The announcement shows that the fundraising project “annual output of 100,000 tons of high-purity silicon-based material project” belongs to the capacity expansion of the company’s existing business. The construction period is 1.5 years. After completion, LONGi, JA Technology, Shanghai CNC, Meike, and Shuangliang will be equal to a large number of downstream customers in Inner Mongolia and its surrounding areas.

Daqo Energy also stated that with the continuous wide application of N-type high-efficiency solar cells such as TOPCon and heterojunction in downstream power generation, the quality requirements of polysilicon will gradually approach from solar-grade products to electronic-grade products, and high-quality N-type polysilicon is in strong demand. Will bring a broad market space.

From the downstream point of view, N-type battery technology may be an important direction for the next round of photovoltaic industry upgrading. At present, the construction of reserves around TOPCon, HJT, and IBC technologies is also a contest between major manufacturers. According to industry forecasts, 2022 may be the first year of N-type components, which also means that N-type components will be put into the market sooner.

According to the statistics of Longzhong Information, the already implemented TOPCON technology N-type battery modules may usher in 10GW-level shipments this year, while the HJT technology route N-type battery modules are expected to reach 10GW-level shipments in 2023.

Industry analysts told the Financial Associated Press that in the production process, the P-type is mainly doped with boron, and the N-type is optimized for phosphorus-doped. In the future, the advantage of the N-type is that the theoretical efficiency will be higher, but the cost has not been significantly reduced. Type downstream products are currently more expensive. On the whole, N-type is about 5-8% more expensive than P-type at the same thickness, but after considering the thinner thickness, the cost and price of N-type silicon wafers will be lower than P-type.

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