Utilities survived the pandemic, but 2020, in addition to confirming the resilience of the sector, highlighted the need for a change of course for the strategic priorities of the sector and the approach to the new business models triggered by Covid and from the necessary energy transition. According to the tenth edition of Arthur D Little’s Flash Report FY 2020 on the Energy & Utilities sector, in fact, the future of the energy world revolves around the three Ds: “Decarbonization in favor of renewable energy, Decentralization by proposing new business models such as energy communities and Digitization through smart grids “.
A change of course for which, according to experts, approximately 150 billion euros of investments are needed by 2030. Resources that should be distributed as follows: 70 billion for the adaptation of networks and energy distribution systems; 55 billion for the generation of new renewable energy sources; approximately 30 billion for the renewal and strengthening of the electricity transmission and gas transport networks.
Arthur D Little’s report also compares the performance of a panel of listed companies over a ten-year period and analyzes their most recent business plans to highlight the development guidelines for the next ten. A comparison from which the “excellent performances” of the large multi-utilities such as the Hera Group, Iren, A2a and Acea emerge which, despite the pandemic context of the last year and the consequent drop in turnover, have defended their margins.
To assess the positioning of the main operators with respect to SDG (sustainable development goals) and green and digital issues, Arthur D. Little has also developed a matrix which, on the basis of the industrial plans, assesses the propensity of the individual players analyzed.
The sensitivity on these issues is also apparent from the comparison between the industrial plans of 10 years ago and the more recent ones, which show a significant increase in the total amount of investments (they doubled for multi-utilities and are equal to 1.5 times for infrastructure operators) as well as a greater allocation of resources dedicated to innovation and socio-environmental issues.
In order to return a future-oriented photograph of the sector, Arthur D Little’s study focuses on two other key aspects for the development of the Energy & Utilities sector in addition to the Ecological Transition and the Waste Sector: “The liberalization of the retail market which on the one hand will cause a substantial change in the competitive context and on the other will push towards business models that are no longer focused on commodities and which see the customer increasingly at the center – we read – first they will increase competition with a reduction in margins, then it will lead to to a progressive consolidation of the market which today has more than 630 operators ». An evolution which will benefit those who are able to exploit economies of scale and digital platforms.