Home » Def, Bank of Italy: “Downside risks to growth, Pnrr decisive”. Eurostat: Italy at the top for deficit/GDP in 2023

Def, Bank of Italy: “Downside risks to growth, Pnrr decisive”. Eurostat: Italy at the top for deficit/GDP in 2023

by admin
Def, Bank of Italy: “Downside risks to growth, Pnrr decisive”.  Eurostat: Italy at the top for deficit/GDP in 2023

MILAN – Il Economics and finance document approved by the government in a rare version without programmatic numbers, i.e. without indicating the impact of the measures that the executive wants to adopt on public finance figures, ends up under the scrutiny of insiders in the cycle of hearings at the Budget commissions of the House and Senate . The report is expected in the evening minister Giancarlo Giorgetti. A Def marked by a growth forecast that some observers consider too optimistic, and which if it holds firm to the Nadef’s September deficit target requires the search for around thirty billion in resources to confirm the policies implemented by the government with the latest Budget law, starting with Irpef and tax relief, as calculated by the Catholic Public Accounts Observatory.

Borrowing is expected to be well above 3% of GDP this year and next, while debt is not decreasing. A difficult situation to manage also in view of the excessive deficit procedure that the EU will open after the elections and which will have to be addressed by 20 September in the new multi-annual budget planning that Rome will have to agree with Brussels. And so the government, which blames the accounting problems on the Superbonus, is considering the ouster of the accountant Biagio Mazzotta, a potentially unprecedented move.

The deficit estimate worsens

In the meantime, the certification of the 2023 results has arrived from Eurostat. At the end of last year, the gross debt/GDP ratio in the Eurozone. The highest ratios were recorded in Greece (161.9%), Italy (137.3%), France (110.6%), Spain (107.7%) and Belgium (105.2%)., and the lowest in Estonia (19.6%), Bulgaria (23.1%), Luxembourg (25.7%) and Denmark (29.3%). The deficit/GDP ratio instead it recorded an increase: to 4.1% in the euro area and from 4.0% in the EU, compared to 3.6% and 3.5% in the third quarter of 2023. For this item, we there are 11 countries above the 3% parameter and Italy records the highest value with 7.4%, worsening – according to the Istat final balance – by 0.2 points on the previous estimate. A review, explains the Institute of Statistics, which “incorporates the most recent quantitative evidence on the expenditure for tax credits connected to the so-called Superbonus, since the deadline for communicating the tax credit to the Revenue Agency has expired on 4 April 2024. choice to avail of the credit transfer or invoice discount”.

Pisauro: “The Superbonus will weigh at least one point of debt per year. But politics should not look for alibis” by Valentina Conte 21 April 2024

See also  Gome discounts, discounts, value-for-money benefits, and double 11 consumption will require "no routines and real discounts"_TOM News

Bank of Italy: downside risks, Pnrr decisive

In the report of the head of the department of economics and statistics, Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, please note that Bank of Italy’s forecasts say – net of the difference in working days – a growth of 0.8 percent this year, 0.9 percent next year and 1.3 percent in 2026: those of the government are included “in the range of projections of the main forecasters, ranking among the most positive ones”. Self the risks for growth are “oriented downwards”, the Pnrr “is more decisive than ever in achieving the development rates outlined in the Government’s framework”.

Brussels warns Italy about the Pnrr “Too many projects postponed until 2026” by our correspondent Claudio Tito 22 April 2024

Bank of Italy also takes note of how the Def reports the expected deficit level to “unchanged policies”, i.e. the commitment to prolong the cut to the tax wedge. “”In this case, the deficit would be higher than the trend under current legislation by approximately one percentage point of GDP on average per year in the three-year period 2025-27, remaining above 3 percent in all years of the horizon forecast”. Furthermore, via Naziona notes, a temporary extension of the reliefs “would increase uncertainty about the future evolution of public finances; on the other hand, making the reliefs structural would open up two important questions. In the first place, At an aggregate level, the balance between contribution income and expenditure for services would disappear which, in the medium term, characterizes our social security system and represents its strong point. Secondly, without a change to the structure of the relief, workers with incomes close to the thresholds below which the benefit accrues would continue to be penalized by high effective marginal rates, with potentially distorting effects on labor supply”.

Cnel: Pnrr does not go beyond 2026

Among the first hearings, that ofAnci which asks to “avoid automatic restrictive effects on local authorities of the new stability and growth pact signed within the European Union”. Colonel instead it is underlined that “there is a stone-cold guest” in the acceptable choice – for President Brunetta – to present only the trend data. And it is “the Pnrr” that is the “fundamental player” of growth in 2026. But “the real problem arises after 2026”. For Brunetta, this is one more reason why there is no talk of extensions, feared by Minister Giorgetti: “We must make an initial decision to have an absolute rigor of total implementation in compliance with the timing of the Pnrr with respect to 2026, that is, not to have the afterthought of throw the ball forward.”

You may also like

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More

Privacy & Cookies Policy