Research report text
1. Market review
Rebar2305 The main contract closed today with an upper shadow line of 30 points, a lower shadow line of 48 points, and a body line of 5 points. The opening price: 4054, the closing price: 4049, the highest price: 4084, and the lowest price: 4001. Compared with the closing price of the previous trading day, it rose 18 points, or 0.45%.
2. News situation
1. On February 3, the central bank released a statistical report on the loan direction of financial institutions in the fourth quarter of 2022. At the end of 2022, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, which was 6.5 percentage points lower than the growth rate at the end of the previous year; the annual increase was 721.3 billion yuan, accounting for 3.4% of the increase in various loans during the same period. At the end of 2022, the balance of real estate development loans was 12.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, which was 1.5 percentage points higher than the end of the third quarter and 2.8 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year.
2. The person in charge of the relevant department of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission stated that in 2023, the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy will continue to be improved, support for recovery and expansion of consumption will be given priority, financing guarantees for investment will be done, and the social sector will be supported to speed up shortcomings. Continuously optimize financial services for import and export trade, vigorously develop inclusive finance, comprehensively promote rural revitalization, and fully support the overall improvement of economic operation.
3. Shandong will speed up the issuance of 218.4 billion yuan of special bonds issued in advance in 2023, and strive to use up all of them in the first half of the year. Strengthen the planning and reserve of projects in the fields of new infrastructure construction and coal storage facilities, and newly support the application of local government special bonds as capital for high-quality projects in coal storage, new energy, and national-level industrial park infrastructure.
3. Fundamentals
supply side, According to data, last week’s rebar production increased by 76,700 tons to 2.349 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 90,800 tons. At present, due to poor production profits of steel mills and many electric furnace enterprises shut down production during the holidays, but due to the partial resumption of production of blast furnaces, the overall steel supply still rebounded slightly. Pay attention to changes on the supply side.
Inventory, according to the data, last week, the social warehouse of rebar increased by 1.2139 million tons to 7.9492 million tons from the previous month, and the lunar calendar increased by 102,100 tons year-on-year; 151.95 tons to 11.1333 million tons. The inventory of steel mills has accumulated for four consecutive weeks, the social inventory has accumulated for ten consecutive weeks, and the total inventory has accumulated for seven consecutive weeks. Continue to pay attention to the changes in inventory.
demand sideAccording to the data, the apparent consumption of rebar last week increased by 501,900 tons to 829,500 tons from the previous month, a year-on-year decrease of 712,300 tons, and demand rebounded after six consecutive weeks of decline. Due to the general shutdown of construction sites during the Spring Festival holiday, there is less demand for steel terminal procurement. A recent survey by Centennial Construction Network shows that the resumption rate and labor completion rate of national engineering projects after the festival are lower than those of the same period last year. The slow resumption process has led to more transactions in the current market. Mainly speculative trading, just a small amount of demand.
According to data, in January 2023, the national land market supply was 44.26 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 53%. In January, the total transaction floor area of commercial land in 300 cities across the country was 36.51 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of more than 50%, a decrease of 15% compared with the Spring Festival month of 2022, and a month-on-month decrease of nearly 90%. form a certain impact. However, this year’s policy focus will focus on economic recovery, the central government’s support for real estate has increased, housing loan interest rate cuts and other preferential measures for home purchases have continued to be released, the financing environment for real estate companies has improved significantly, and the market’s expectations for consumer demand are still good. and policy situations.
OverallLast week, the supply and output of rebar rebounded month-on-month, the inventory continued to accumulate sharply, and the demand has not yet started. Under the current background of stable growth, favorable macro policies continue to be released, but the pace of resumption of work at terminal construction sites is slow, the start of terminal demand has yet to be verified, and short-term thread prices show a volatile trend. Continue to pay attention to changes in supply and demand and policy situations.
TechnicallyFrom the perspective of the daily line, the main contract of thread 2305 today closed up in shock, and the top is still suppressed by multiple moving averages. The MACD indicator continues to open and run downwards, technically in a volatile trend.
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