Author | Zhao Ling, Editor | Liang Puxi
Source: Jufeng Investment Advisor, Good Stocks App
l Pork
On Monday, the breeding sector was active, with Huatong shares, Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Haid Group, and Muyuan shares active.
According to the news, the second round of reserve meat this year began on September 18, with a quantity of 15,000 tons, but the market pig price did not fall in response, but continued to rise. The National Development and Reform Commission said that in light of the market supply and demand and price situation, it will continue to release the central pork reserves in batches, and urge and guide the simultaneous release of pork reserves in all regions. And prices run smoothly.
Tianfeng Securities Research Report stated that the pig cycle has reversed and it is still in the early stage of the upward cycle. With the marginal reduction of the number of viable stocks last year, the pressure on the supply of live pigs is expected to improve month by month in the next period of time. In terms of demand, as the weather turns cooler and the number of holidays increases, the demand is seasonally improved. In the case of weak supply and strong demand, the price center of pigs may continue to rise, and the profit and valuation space of pig companies will be opened. In the medium and long term, the current production capacity increase is limited, which corresponds to the continued high price of pigs next year. The configuration value of the pig plate is outstanding!
Regarding the opportunities in the breeding industry chain, he further pointed out that the rebound in pig prices is optimistic about the post-cycle opportunities, and the African swine fever vaccine is expected to open up room for industry growth. At present, the slaughter price has remained above 20 yuan/kg for a long time, and the price is significantly higher than the complete cost line of the industry.
Guosheng Securities is also optimistic that pork prices will rise. Its research report said that the Ministry of Agriculture’s increase in the number of breeding sows in July was relatively small, and in the medium term, there is no need to worry too much about the supply side in the first half of 2023. It is judged that the overall supply in the second half of the year is still in a trend of shrinking month-on-month. At the same time, the peak season of demand-side consumption is gradually approaching, and catering consumption is steadily recovering. In the medium term, the price of pigs will rise, which is easy to rise and difficult to fall.
It is recommended to focus on: Muyuan Shares, Pleco
Muyuan Co., Ltd. (002714): The company is the leader of pig breeding in my country. Under the integrated breeding mode of self-propagation and self-raising, it has built a complete industrial chain including feed processing, pig breeding, breeding pig breeding, commercial pig breeding and meat slaughtering. Strictly control all links and build a low-cost core advantage. Since mid-April, pig prices have continued to rise and have been operating at a relatively high level. The industry’s prosperity has continued to improve, and the company is expected to fully benefit. In 2022H1, the company sold a total of 31.28 million live pigs, a year-on-year increase of 79.4%, continuing the high growth trend, including 26.977 million commercial pigs, 4.093 million piglets, and 211,000 breeding pigs. The single-second quarter sold 17.463 million live pigs, a year-on-year increase of 79.7%. The annual slaughter volume is expected to be close to the upper limit of the previous slaughter plan (56 million head). The low average sales price of live pigs in the first half of the year limited revenue growth, and the price showed an upward trend from mid-April to June, driving the Q2 average sales price to improve significantly month-on-month.
Pleco (603566): The company is a leading enterprise in my country’s veterinary vaccine industry. In terms of policy, it will fully benefit from the systematic upgrading of the vaccine industry and the rapid development of market vaccines. From the perspective of industry trends, it will benefit from the rapid prosperity of swine vaccines in 2022-2024. promote. The company continues to promote the research on the African swine fever subunit vaccine developed in cooperation with the Lanzhou Institute of O type + A type) bivalent three-component subunit vaccine has completed the research and demonstration of process parameters, and is currently in the final stage of preclinical research; ) The recombinant trivalent subunit vaccine (baculovirus vector) is currently undergoing clinical trials in three provinces including Jilin, Shandong and Henan as required, and the overall project is progressing smoothly.
l Hotel catering
On Monday, the hotel and catering sector was active, with Huatian Hotel hitting the daily limit, Jinling Hotel, Junting Hotel, Xi’an Catering and other stocks active and strong.
In terms of news, on September 17, the director of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Medical and Health Bureau, Lu Chongmao, said in an interview that he has a positive attitude towards reducing hotel quarantine and will actively consider adjusting the entry quarantine measures to “0+7” before November. Compulsory hotel quarantine for 7 days and community medical supervision for 7 days. This epidemic prevention policy will be the “relaxation” of Hong Kong’s epidemic prevention policy after the introduction of “3+4” and reverse isolation measures.
In addition, on September 17, the first day of the National Day holiday, train tickets were officially launched. According to the Qunar Travel App, after the ticket was released the previous day, that is, on the morning of September 16, many trains on some high-speed rail lines such as Beijing-Zhengzhou, Beijing-Xi’an, Beijing-Yinchuan, and Beijing-Taiyuan were sold out on September 30. . Qunar Travel said that with the increase in bookings, the average price paid for domestic routes during the National Day holiday has increased significantly. The average price paid on September 15 was three times that of a week ago, and the price of air tickets for many routes departing on September 30 From 2-3% off to full price.
AVIC Securities Research Report stated that in the upcoming National Day holiday, on the premise of effective and accurate epidemic prevention and control, superimposed consumption stimulus policies are continuously introduced, and offline consumption and travel demand are expected to be released faster. Combined with the current epidemic prevention situation, short-distance travel and micro-vacation will become the first choice for holiday tourism. Innovative leisure tourism such as local scenic spots, themed games, country houses, camping, and night tours is expected to continue to be popular. Leading companies in the sub-sectors will directly enjoy the recovery zone of the industry. performance boost to come.
Bank of China Securities said that under the stimulus of the “Double Festival”, confidence in the cultural tourism industry continued to recover, and the National Day holiday is expected to boost confidence in long-distance travel.
In terms of specific investment targets, its research report stated that it recommends CYTS and Tianmu Lake in the tourist attractions around key economic regions; the entry policy is expected to continue to be relaxed, and high-quality outbound travel service providers such as Zhongxin Tourism and Lingnan Holdings are recommended; BTG Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel are recommended , Songcheng Performing Arts and other hotels and leading enterprises in the performing arts industry; the stabilization of the epidemic situation has increased the demand for catering consumption and the demand for flexible employment of enterprises. It is recommended to speed up the layout of the catering industry. Yuyuan shares and comprehensive human services leader Career International.
Suggestions to focus on: Junting Hotel, Jin Jiang Hotel
Junting Hotel (301073): The company positions itself as a mid-to-high-end selected hotel, deeply cultivates the core area of the Yangtze River Delta, improves profitability through differentiated products and high value-added services, builds brand influence, and then uses the entrusted management model for asset-light expansion. In the short term, the company focuses on direct sales, and the industry recovery cycle can release greater performance flexibility; Narada Group focuses on high-end resort hotels, and after the impact of the epidemic fades, the recovery flexibility is even greater. In the long run, the company is expected to use the brand influence of Junting and Narada to further expand and increase market share under the background of increasing industry chain rate, upgrading and diversification of mid-to-high-end hotels, and the development of local high-end brands.
Jin Jiang Hotel (600754): As a leader in the hotel industry, the company actively integrates and seeks changes, seizes opportunities in the short term and actively expands; in the medium and long term, it is actively deploying in line with the industry’s asset-light, mid-to-high-end, and sinking market trends. Scale expansion and continuous optimization of efficiency, and the leading position continues to be stable. The group has successively acquired French Louvre Hotel Group, Plateno Group, Vienna Hotel Group and strategically invested in French Accor Hotel Group. In 2018, the group successfully acquired Radisson Hotel Management Group. The group has invested and managed more than 10,000 hotels with 1 million rooms, with “J”, “Rock Garden”, “Jinjiang”, “Kunlun”, “Radisson Radisson”, “Tulip Golden Tulip”, “Jinjiang Metropolis”, “Campanile”, “Little Garden” There are more than 40 high-end, mid-end and economical brands such as Feng” and “Vienna”, which are distributed in 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China and more than 120 countries in the world, with more than 150 million members, ranking second among the top 300 hotel groups in the world.
(Author: Zhao Ling, Practicing Certificate: A0680615040001)
Reference research report:
Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery Industry Weekly Report: Pig prices fluctuated, chicken prices stabilized, and the peak season is approaching, paying attention to phased layouts – Guosheng Securities 20220912
Tianfeng Agriculture | 2022H1 Summary: Expectation Difference at the Turning Point of the Cycle – Tianfeng Securities 20220916
Social service industry · Zhou’s point of view: the popularity of local tourism is high, pay attention to the subdivision of tourism hotels – AVIC Securities 20220918
Social service industry weekly report: National Day travel is cautiously optimistic, the industry is expected to bottom out and rebound – Bank of China Securities 20220918
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