===== Gold latest market analysis=====
On Wednesday (July 28), international gold prices remained firm, supported by the relatively moderate trend of the stock market and the US dollar. However, the price increase of gold is limited because the market is cautiously waiting for the Fed’s new view on inflation and economic growth. Following the Fed’s hawkish tone at the last meeting, the U.S. Index surged 2.8% in June, but the increase in cases of infection with the Delta variant of the new crown virus weakened the Fed’s prospects for tightening monetary policy. The senior market analyst of Western Union Business Solutions said: “The U.S. dollar has soared in the summer. I think the event risk posed by the Fed is enough to make some dollar longs profit.” The results of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting tonight came out. Previously, gold was benefiting from some risk hedging buying by investors. I think (Powell) will just send a signal to the market. They have been discussing reducing the scale of debt purchases, discussing how to reduce debt purchases, but considering the stage of recovery we are in, they are still on the sidelines. So, they will try to hold on, but I think some hawks will be revealed. Gold prices closed up slightly, mainly due to the fear of the epidemic that stimulated risk aversion, but investors remained cautious in trading before the Fed’s decision in the evening. Investors are waiting for clues about the policy reduction plan at the Fed meeting and any views on the threat of the Delta new crown variant virus.
From a technical point of view, from a daily point of view, the price of gold rose slightly on Tuesday and is still in a sideways shock. Investors are anxiously waiting for the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision to break the deadlock. However, the outcome of this interest rate resolution is more difficult to predict. On the one hand, the PCE price index has reached 3.4% in May, and the Fed’s dot plot was unexpectedly hawkish in June. The hawkish camp among Fed officials is getting stronger and stronger. In several speeches he still insisted on the dovish stance. It is expected that Powell will still release a dovish signal at the press conference, and there is still a chance for gold prices to rise. However, if the policy of reducing debt purchases is further clarified, it may hit the price of gold. The initial resistance above focuses on the 38.2% retracement at 1813.98, and further attention to the 200-day moving average at 1822.32 and the 50% retracement at 1833.63. The initial support below focuses on the 23.6% retracement level 1789.67, and further attention is paid to the May 5 low of 1770.53 and the March 18 high of 1755.49. To sum up, Diao Chan points gold on today’s operational thinking. It is recommended to rebound from high altitudes, supplemented by callbacks. The top focus is on the first-line resistance of 1815-1820, and the short-term focus is on the first-line support of 1790-1786.
=====The latest crude oil market analysis=====
On Wednesday (July 28), international oil prices rose. Previous industry data showed that the US crude oil and oil product inventories fell more than expected last week, strengthening people’s expectations that demand will exceed supply growth, despite the surge in the number of new crown infections. Analysts said: “Before the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released official inventory data, crude oil prices were stable, and traders were weighing the spread of the Delta variant virus with tight supply.” As of the week of July 23, U.S. crude oil Inventory was 413.1 million barrels, a decrease of 4.7 million barrels from the previous week, gasoline inventory decreased by 6.2 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 1.9 million barrels. Crude oil prices may maintain a weak pattern in the near future, pay attention to the resistance above. On the whole, we believe that since the fourth round of the epidemic has just spread, the number of newly diagnosed people in the world is still increasing, and oil prices may still fluctuate in the short-term. In the long run, the probability of a complete out-of-control of the epidemic is low, which means that the recovery of crude oil demand is only a post-tempo, and it is still possible to maintain the third quarter. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the issue of Iran’s supply recovery and the pace of demand recovery under the re-spread of the epidemic.
From a technical point of view, from a daily point of view, oil prices closed down slightly on Tuesday, and the rise lost momentum. The long and short sides are currently in a confrontation and are evenly matched. Oil prices need new macro news to guide the direction. API crude oil inventories continued the previous downward trend, showing that the demand impact brought by the Delta virus is limited, and the fundamentally positive pattern has not changed. The evening EIA crude oil inventories and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision are expected to bring new momentum to the oil market. The initial resistance above focuses on the June 16 high of 72.99, and further attention to the June 28 high of 74.45 and the July 6 high of 76.98. The initial support below focuses on the 50-day moving average of 70.85, and further attention to the high of 67.98 on March 8 and the 100-day moving average of 66.75. On the whole, today’s short-term operation thinking suggests that Diao Chan’s point of gold is mainly to pull back low and more, supplemented by rebound high. The top short-term focus is on the 73.0-73.5 resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 71.0-70.5 first-line support.
This article is contributed by Diao Chan Dianjin. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and have in-depth research on crude oil, gold, and other commodities. Due to the delay of online push, the above content is personal advice, because online postings are time-limited. Sex, for reference only, at your own risk, please indicate the source for reprinting.Return to Sohu to see more
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