(Original title: Do you still remember? A-shares and the World Cup have these origins! “Curse” and “law” fly together. Is there any new story this year?)
On November 21, the quadrennial football event and the much-anticipated 2022 World Cup will be held in Qatar. What stories must be told about A shares and the World Cup?
A-shares were mostly weak during the World Cup, but there were still two big gains
The World Cup and the Olympic Games are known as the two top sports events in the world, and their influence covers the whole world.In the last World Cup, about 3.572 billion people around the world watched the game, accounting for nearly half of the world‘s population at that time。
The origin of China and the Football World Cup can be traced back to 1978. Teacher Song Shixiong’s World Cup live broadcast “flyed” into thousands of households along with radio waves. Four years later, CCTV broadcast the World Cup live for the first time. At that time, television was not popular, and dozens of neighbors Gathering to watch games makes sports, starting with football, a social focus. With the development of China’s market economy and the continuous iteration of audio-visual equipment, the collective memory of football still remains in the hearts of three generations.
Therefore, there are also many fans among A-share investors. In 2017, it was first reported that China would bid to host the 2034 World Cup. Before it was confirmed, the market response was already enthusiastic enough, and Rheinland Sports and China Sports Industry straightly pulled the limit.
During this World Cup, “The Curse of the World Cup”Whether it will be staged again is also affecting the attention of investors. This statement comes from the weak performance of global stock indexes during the World Cup in previous years.During the previous World Cups with A-share “participation”, the stock index was relatively weak most of the timeonly the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup and the 2006 World Cup in Germany showed an upward trend.
Historically, the World Cup held in the northern hemisphere is often held in June, which is often before the A-share mid-term report season. It is a period of performance vacuum and lacks motivation to switch industry valuations. At the same time, it is often a policy window period. But it is worth noting that during the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup, the Shanghai Stock Index recorded a 13.7% increase.
Why does the “World Cup Curse” fail at this time?Some voices said that the market sentiment was driven by the Chinese team’s entry into the World Cup。
On the evening of October 7, 2001, Shenyang, China, Wulihe Stadium. The key goal of Chinese striker Yu Genwei kicked the national football team into the 2002 World Cup.
Before the game against Oman that night, the Chinese team led by “Magic Coach” Milu had already defeated the UAE 1-0 away. After qualifying, the Chinese team finally defeated the Oman team with a score of 1:0, securing the first place in the top ten group of the 2002 World Cup in Asia in advance, and obtaining the qualification to participate in the World Cup. This is the first time in the history of the Chinese men’s football team to enter the World Cup, and it is also the only time to be on the World Cup stage. However, they lost all against strong opponents such as Costa Rica, Brazil, and Turkey, and missed the subsequent promotion to the knockout rounds.
The World Cup was held in South Korea and Japan,Chinese audiences don’t need to be “jet-lag” to watch the football. In addition, the Chinese team is shortlisted, and the enthusiasm of the whole people for football is high. The market of A-share related sectors takes off.During the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup, the A-share audio-visual equipment sector rose by 16.9%, leading home appliances, and the beverage sector also drove the overall food and beverage industry to rise by 10.4%.
But beyond that, the market situation in 2002 was still mainly led by policy changes. After the end of the “War of the Century” between Brazil and England in the World Cup, on June 23, 2002, the reduction of state-owned shares was stopped by the State Council. On the next day (June 24), the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the “Notice on Further Regulating the Issuance of New Shares by Listed Companies” The draft for comments has raised the “threshold” for listed companies to apply for additional issuance of new shares.The double benefits made the A-share market almost open at the daily limit, which is known in history“6.24” Quotes, revitalized the market.Four years later, the World Cup in Germany also coincided withA-share bull market in 2006。
“World Cup Rules” Beyond “World Cup Curse”
During the last World Cup in Russia, Tan Zhuo, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, once said that from the perspective of behavioral economics, the phenomenon of the “World Cup Curse” in the stock market actually has a certain internal basis. Mainly divided into the following four specific effects: investors’ attention shift (mainly fatigue) will amplify the risk of short-term trading, and some investors choose to withdraw; investors’ mood swings are mainly due to the winning or losing of participating countries during the World Cup, which has a significant impact on the stock market; Abnormal collective behavior is mainly due to investors’ psychological hints about the curse of the event, which drives prices down; diversion of investors’ funds, and a major part of stock market funds may flow into the gaming market.
Wang Dongxue, an analyst at CITIC Securities, believes that in addition to the above reasons, from the perspective of behavioral finance, it may be related to investors’ cognitive and behavioral deviations. First of all, people always instinctively believe in the bad side more,‘Selective memory’ emerges after yet-to-be-tested link between World Cup and stock market drop. That is to screen out a lot of evidence supporting the stock market decline during the World Cup in memory, while ignoring the negative cases of stock market rise,And then put forward the “World Cup Curse”。
Second, in subsequent markets,Once the stock market fell during the World Cup again, people are likely to have an “attribution effect”.Blame World Cup for declineignoring the influence of the market itself and other factors, further confirming the existence of the “curse”.
third,Even if some people have doubts about the “curse”, under the influence of the “herd effect”, they will tend to choose to accept the views of the majority. But judging from the actual data, global stock indexes are not greatly affected by the “World Cup curse”.
However, in addition to the “World Cup curse”, there are also “World Cup rules”. Observing the performance of the Shanghai Index after the previous World Cups, it can be found that the corresponding Shanghai Index points during the World Cups are often the starting point of a new round of market prices.
Rather than claiming that the World Cup every four years has changed the operating law of A-shares, it is better to say that the cyclical operation of the market has once again been verified.
This year, the World Cup in Qatar will be held in the northern hemisphere for the first time in the winter. The A-share market has also come to the end of the three-quarter report, and the risk of performance changes is fully priced in. definite stages. The opening of the new football event is expected to ignite industries that benefit from the “World Cup economy”, but more depends on the subsequent trend of switching from the game of policy expectations to the game of policy effects.
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