Original title: Domestic oil prices may be lowered for the second time this year, and a full box will cost 4.5 yuan less Source: Sino-Singapore Jingwei
Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, July 26th (Xiong Jiali) Today (26th) at 24:00, the 14th round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window in 2021 will open. Based on the forecasts of many agencies, this round of domestic refined oil prices will likely drop, which may be the second drop in oil prices this year.
Recently, international crude oil prices have shown a roller coaster market that first fell and then rose. As of the early morning close on July 24, Beijing time, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 0.16 US dollars to close at 72.07 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.22%; London Brent crude oil for September delivery Futures prices rose by 0.31 US dollars to close at 74.10 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.42%.
Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Meng Peng said that during this pricing cycle, affected by OPEC+’s agreement to increase crude oil production and other factors, the crude oil market was once hit hard, and European and American crude oil futures prices once saw a single-day drop. Although crude oil prices were boosted by factors such as optimism in demand in the later period, and continued to rebound after falling, the average crude oil price in this cycle still fell month-on-month, and the domestic estimated crude oil rate of change continued to be in the negative range.
Longzhong Information analyst Li Yan analyzed that due to the current U.S. aviation demand has not fully recovered; OPEC+ agreed that some member states can adopt a new production baseline from May 2022, and the theoretical increase in the new version of the agreement will expand; the new crown variant virus strain The rapid spread of delta has triggered some countries to strengthen control measures and other factors. It is expected that domestic refined oil products will usher in the second decline this year.
Regarding the adjustment range, Longzhong Information expects gasoline and diesel to be reduced by about 105 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to 0.08-0.09 yuan per liter. That is: filling a box of 50L of 92# gasoline will cost about 4 yuan-4.5 yuan less.
According to statistics from the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, since 2021, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted for 13 rounds, with a total increase of 1,475 yuan/ton for gasoline and 1,420 yuan/ton for diesel. If this price reduction is implemented, the price adjustment of refined oil products in 2021 will show a pattern of “ten up, two down, and two stranded”.
In accordance with the “ten working days” principle, the next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on August 9, 2021. Li Yan predicts that the next round of refined oil price adjustments is likely to increase.
Jin Lianchuang analyst Wang Shan pointed out that the news of OPEC+ production increase will gradually be digested. As the economies of various countries recover, the optimistic outlook of international energy demand may support the trend of strong volatility in crude oil. On the whole, in the short term, the domestic refined oil market is empty. It is expected that various regions may adjust their quotations flexibly according to their own conditions. Relatively speaking, the listed prices may be relatively strong, and the real deal may fall in secret.
Regarding the market outlook, Sun Yanan, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, believes that internationally, an agreement to increase production has been reached, and with the recent repeated epidemics in many regions around the world, the expected strong recovery in fuel demand is actually impossible to achieve. The refined oil needs to weaken and oil prices. The downside risks are higher. In terms of the domestic market, many parts of the country were hit by extreme weather such as heavy rains, high temperatures, and typhoons, and industries such as residents’ travel and engineering infrastructure were greatly affected. Under the circumstance of intertwined long and short factors, domestic gasoline and diesel prices may maintain a fluctuating trend.
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