[Epoch Times November 22, 2021](Epoch Times reporter Liu Yi comprehensive report) The price of live pigs in mainland China has risen for more than five consecutive weeks as of last weekend (November 19), with an increase of 67.5%, but industry insiders believe that from In the long run, pork prices have not seen an inflection point.
According to data from China Pig.com, the price of Sanyuan live pigs outside the mainland (all pigs made from hybrids of foreign breeds) has risen from the low point of 10.63 yuan (RMB, the same below) per kilogram on October 6, to 11. It has risen to 17.81 yuan on the 19th, an increase of 67.5%.
Wholesale prices have risen, so have retail prices. According to the news from the mainland wind information on November 22, as of November 19, the average price of pork in 22 provinces and cities in mainland China was 25.4 yuan per kilogram, which has risen for five consecutive weeks. This has increased by 39.8% from 18.17 yuan per kilogram in mid-October. .
Chinanews.com reported on November 21 that a business at a pork stall in a vegetable market in Xicheng District, Beijing, revealed: “The meat has gone up a bit recently, like the front and back tips have gone up by two or three yuan when it was cheaper than before.”
In a supermarket in Xicheng District, the front and back price is 15.8 yuan per catty, and the pork belly is 18.8 yuan per catty. In mid-October, the front and rear price here is 11.8 yuan per catty, and the price of pork belly is 17.8 yuan per catty.
Regarding the recent surge in pork prices, pig industry analyst Feng Yonghui analyzed that the main reason is that demand has rebounded after the weather turns cold. In addition, the number of new born piglets has dropped slightly this summer. Under the influence of both supply and demand, the price There was a small increase.
Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Niu Zhe said that from the consumer side, the weather turned cooler in November, and the enema in the north and the cured meat in the south began to support the rise of live pig prices.
Although pork prices have rebounded recently, Feng Yonghui believes: “According to official data, this wave of rise is not cyclical or trending. The current level of live pig production capacity is still at a high level, so it is only a phased rebound.”
Niu Zhe predicts that by December, the price of pigs may face a trend of high decline. At the end of the year, some leading companies and live pig listed companies, in order to complete the annual sprint task, may focus on increasing the volume in December. However, due to the weather this year, the enema in the north and the cured meat in the south were opened almost a month in advance, and the consumption is in a state of advance. The peak season for pork consumption may be concentrated in November or early December, and it is estimated that consumption is at an end in late December. . At that time, the supply of pork will be oversupply, which may lead to a trend of high prices and a downward trend.
Tan Ying, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of South China Agricultural University, analyzed that from the perspective of the inertia of production capacity supply, this year’s pork supply is still too large, and there will be no substantial price increases. In the long run, it will continue to operate at low prices. There is no turning point in price.
Some people even think that the losses in the pig industry may have just begun. “21st Century Business Herald” published an analysis article by researcher Feng Zhanpeng on November 21, stating that although the price of pigs has recently rebounded, it is still far from the high of 36.94 yuan/kg (foreign three yuan pig price) in January this year. Fell more than 50%.
After analyzing the cycle of the mainland pig industry, the number of sows and piglets, and the performance reports of mainland pig companies such as Muyuan, Zhengbang Technology, and New Hope, Feng Zhanpeng believes that “the industry’s losses may have just begun.”
Editor in charge: Lin Congwen