Home » Economic forecast for 2023 – “The signs point to a downturn” – News

Economic forecast for 2023 – “The signs point to a downturn” – News

by admin
Economic forecast for 2023 – “The signs point to a downturn” – News

  • Experts expect growth of between 0.3 and 0.9 percent for this year.
  • This is significantly less than the long-term average.
  • For the coming year, however, the economists are more confident.
  • Nevertheless, there should be more unemployed again.

If the experts’ forecasts come true, it would be a weak year for the Swiss economy. In the last 20 years, there has only been three smaller growths. In 2020 the economy shrank because of Corona, in 2009 because of the financial crisis, and in the early 2000s after the dot-com bubble and the terrorist attacks in the USA.

In all other years, the gross domestic product in Switzerland grew by more than one percent – around 2006 by more than four percent. The economy has also grown significantly in the past two years. But now the damper.

The signs point to a downturn.

The forecasting institute BAK Basel expects growth of only 0.3 percent for this year. Economic researcher Alex Bill-Körber does not believe that the last few years have been a signal for an upswing, but rather: “The signs are pointing to a downturn.”

The economists of the federal government and the economic research center of the ETH Zurich, the KOF, are a little more confident. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) expects growth of 0.8 percent, the KOF even 0.9 percent. In addition, these two positions are assuming significant growth in the coming year.

Big uncertainties for the economy

However, there are factors currently weighing on the economy. For example, the export industry is suffering because the global economy is weakening. High inflation is also leaving its mark. The national banks have raised interest rates because of the rising prices. This makes money more expensive, which slows down the economy.

See also  Liquor shocks to be selected to fund managers will still "drink"

At the same time, higher interest rates could fuel inflation again. Because of the increase in the reference interest rate, rents are likely to rise. The KOF assumes that half of the inflation in the coming year will be due to higher rents. The federal economists also see a corresponding effect. According to Seco itself, it would not be surprised if the rent round had an effect of half a percentage point on inflation.

Rising prices and a sluggish economy are not good prospects. For the federal economists, this should also leave its mark on the labor market. Unemployment is likely to remain at an average of 2.0 percent this year. In the coming year, however, the rate could rise to 2.3 percent.

SRF 4 News, June 15, 2023, 10:30 a.m.;

You may also like

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More

Privacy & Cookies Policy