S&P Global Ratings focuses on the economies of the EMEA area (Europe, Middle East and Africa). “Within the EMEA area, the economies have surprised again with numbers that prove stronger than expected growth, mainly deriving from the increase in consumption and exports – say analysts from the US rating agency -. The indicators available suggest that GDP growth in the region for the full year will be higher than our June forecast. ” S&P has thus revised upwards its GDP growth forecasts for 2021 for Poland (5.1%), Russia (4%), South Africa (4.6%) and Turkey (8.6%).
The other issue is inflation, which continues to rise in emerging Europe, moving further and further away from central bank targets, as rising fuel and food prices and disruptions to supply chains face a recovery. stronger economic. “EMEA central banks will continue to navigate a complicated landscape, seeking a balance between supporting the recovery and anchoring inflation expectations in an environment where supply-side pressures may last longer. than expected “, analysts still point out that a key risk for our EMEA outlook is insufficient progress in the vaccination campaign, which makes countries vulnerable to future waves of infections.