Economic Observer reporter Zheng Luoxin On December 13th, Baolingbao (002286.SZ), one of the sugar substitute suppliers of Yuanqi Forest, said in its 2021 performance forecast that its 13,000 tons of erythritol expansion project will be completed and put into production in 2021. Baolingbao also stated previously that its erythritol production line has been at full capacity in the first half of the year.
In addition to Baolingbao, various sugar generation companies are also expanding production of erythritol to seize the market.
The Sanyuan Biological Impact A-shares plan to raise 900 million yuan of funds with Baolingbao as the supplier of vitality forest, of which 770 million yuan will be used for the “50 thousand tons of erythritol and technology center project”, construction content In order to purchase related R&D and production equipment, build a new production line and technical center with an annual output of 50,000 tons of erythritol; in 2019, Fengyuan Pharmaceutical also announced that it plans to build a new production of 30,000 tons of erythritol; in May this year , Huakang shares also announced that it would invest the raised funds in the “construction project with an annual output of 30,000 tons of high-purity crystalline erythritol”, and construction has started; in August, the Yufeng Group’s Big Health Biological Industrial Park phased 40,000 tons of erythritol The sugar alcohol project was officially put into production.
Huaan Securities analysts said in a research report that companies in the industry are stepping up their deployment and capacity expansion, and multiple new and expansion projects are being implemented. It is expected that the output of erythritol will continue to rise in the next few years, and the increase in production capacity has become a key point for companies in the industry.
Behind the expansion is the rapid growth of the company’s revenue and net profit.
Baolingbao estimates that its net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2021 will be between 190 million yuan and 210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 281.05% to 321.16%; net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses will be between 160 million yuan and 180 million yuan. A year-on-year increase of 341.23% to 396.38%.
The revenue and net profit of Sanyuan Biotech, which is currently IPO, have achieved substantial growth. From 2018 to 2020, its operating income was 292 million yuan, 477 million yuan and 783 million yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 144.35%, 63.95% and 64.27%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 68 million yuan, 136 million yuan and 233 million yuan respectively, an increase of 260.98%, 98.71% and 70.62% year-on-year, and the annual compound growth rate was as high as 130.6%.
Regarding the reasons for the performance changes, Baolingbao mentioned that due to the strong market demand for sugar substitute products, the supply and demand of the company’s erythritol products will be both prosperous in 2021, and the price of erythritol products will have a larger increase compared with the same period in 2020. At the same time, it drives the market demand for other functional sugar products.
According to the “Healthy China Beverage and Food Sugar Reduction Action White Paper” published by Kexin Food and Nutrition Information Exchange Center, my country’s sugar-free beverage market will reach 27.66 billion yuan in 2027. The growth rate is high and the space is large. It is expected in the next few years. my country’s sugar-free beverage industry can maintain a double-digit growth rate. With the increase in sales of sugar substitute beverages, erythritol manufacturers have also embarked on the fast track of development.
According to the research report of Huaan Securities, the global erythritol production has experienced explosive growth since 2017, and the global production in 2019 is about 85,000 tons. China’s erythritol industry is highly concentrated, with CR3 reaching 74% and CR5 close to 95%, with high barriers to entry and fierce competition. China has gradually become a global manufacturing center for erythritol. In 2019, China’s erythritol production accounted for more than half of the world‘s total production.
The increase in the demand for erythritol has also led to the increase in its price. The market price of erythritol on December 9 was about 23,000 yuan/ton, which was down from the high of 36,000 yuan/ton in the second quarter. However, there is still an increase of over 50% compared with the price at the beginning of the year.
However, it is worth noting that while upstream suppliers continue to expand their production capacity, the gross profit margin of erythritol has declined instead of rising. From 2018 to 2020, the gross profit margin of Sanyuan Bio’s erythritol products will be 36.86%, 43.63%, and 42.16%, respectively. Sanyuan Biotech stated in its prospectus that raw materials accounted for 68%, 72.64% and 67.69% of main business costs, respectively. The main raw material of erythritol and compound sugar is glucose, and the processing raw material of glucose is mainly corn. Therefore, the fluctuation of corn price will affect the price of glucose and then the cost of the company’s erythritol and compound sugar.Return to Sohu to see more
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