(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – Slightly moved, slightly up, for the European stock exchanges, after the lively rises on the eve of the session. Investors are pulling the oars in the boat waiting for the important data on the American job market for September to be published, a statistic that will influence the moves of the Federal Reserve, which by the end of the year should announce the tapering, that is the reduction of asset purchases. , now equal to $ 120 billion a month. On Thursday, however, Wall Street closed its third consecutive session up, celebrating the agreement between Republicans and Democrats on the debt limit, which will be raised by 480 billion dollars and which will allow the danger of default to be postponed to December.
Meanwhile, the upward trend in government bond yields is worrying: if those on the German ten-year Bund are in the area of -0.16%, the American ones on ten-year bonds are a breath away from 1.6% . In the meantime, encouraging signs have come from China: in September the services sector grew beyond expectations with the SME index, calculated by the Ihs Markit company and published by the Caixin media group, in fact rose to 53.4 points, against 46.7 of August. Chinese squares were positive after the holiday closures.
Tech observed special, spotlight also on the energetic
In Piazza Affari, as in the rest of Europe, the tech sector will be in the spotlight, after the giant Samsung has revised upwards the estimates for the third quarter: the turnover will be around 73 thousand billion against the previous indication of 63.67 trillion. Forecasts could support St. After the weakness of the last few sessions, oil stocks could raise their heads, in the wake of the performance of crude oil, which has already risen since yesterday evening, after the US Department of Energy has assured that it has no intention to put part of its strategic reserves on the market. The WTI, contract in November, recorded a rise of 1.5%, reaching 79.5 dollars a barrel. On the exchange front, the euro weakened against the dollar to 1.1547 dollars (1.1567 dollars yesterday in closure). The currency is also worth 129.19 yen (128.92), while the dollar / yen ratio is 111.88 (111.47).
After Vladimir Putin promised Europe an increase in gas supplies, dropping the price from 155 euros per megawatt hour on Wednesday to 94 on Thursday and bouncing the share prices, today the stock exchanges start with many doubts and uncertainties of recent times. How strong will the energy shock be? How long will the shortage and rising prices of industrial raw materials and components last? What impact will all this have on inflation, which is already higher than the ECB’s target today? And what effect will all this have on economic growth, industrial production and the choices of the ECB itself? So many unknowns that will keep the markets on their toes for a long time. But which today seem not to weigh / which today already seem to weigh: according to futures, the European stock exchanges should in fact open up / down.
The energy risk
The openings of Vladimir Putin, which arrived on Wednesday afternoon, yesterday relaxed the spirits on the markets, which staged a great recovery. But today the doubts return: after all, only words have arrived from the Russian president, which will ultimately be verified in the facts. Furthermore, the price of gas has dropped drastically after his statements, but still remains above the high threshold of 90 euros per megawatt hour. In short: the problem is not solved. Just as that of all raw materials, which are forcing many industries to reduce production, is not resolved. This is the case with car manufacturers for example.
This is a big unknown about economic growth and the stock exchanges themselves. Also because the increases (and above all the scarcity of raw materials) jeopardize the growth of company profits. For this reason, it is foreseeable that the stock exchanges will remain volatile in these weeks or months, until a solution to the problem is seen. Or at least a real light at the end of the tunnel.