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Feitian Maotai on the cusp of the storm: the price dropped 420 yuan suddenly, and rebounded close to 3,000 yuan
Reporter | Yang Peiwen
Responsible Editor | Ren Zhijiang Intern Editor | Yu Dongmei
After a symposium,Kweichow Moutai(600519.SH) The market prices of alcoholic products have all declined. Take the 53-degree Feitian Moutai as an example. Its price once dropped by 420 yuan per bottle, and “the most one day dropped 200 yuan.”
At the same time, Kweichow Moutai has launched a series of measures to stabilize prices for dealers. “Whether these measures are useful depends on whose hands the wine is.”
A dealer told the Red Star Capital Bureau that dealers cannot stock up on goods, “Now the goods are in the hands of the scalpers, not in our hands.”
The Red Star Capital Bureau noted that after August 25, the prices of Kweichow Moutai’s liquor products have gradually recovered, especially the 53°Flying Moutai, which is approaching the 3,000 yuan/bottle mark again.
After a forum
The market price once dropped by 420 yuan, and rose again after 25th
On August 20, there was a notice issued by the Price Supervision and Competition Bureau of the General Administration of Market Supervision and Administration on the “Notice on Convening a Symposium on the Supervision of the Liquor Market Order”.
The above-mentioned “Notice” stated, “In order to implement the spirit of the notice and instructions of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and to do a good job in supervision of the liquor market, our bureau plans to hold a symposium on the morning of August 20. Please send a comrade familiar with the business to participate. .”
According to previous reports from the Red Star Capital Bureau, the symposium does exist. Another person from the wine company disclosed the content of the forum to the media. At present, it is soliciting opinions. It is mainly aimed at the problem of capital hunting sauce wine and how to control the high price of Moutai.
On August 26, a related person in Kweichow Moutai told the media that the current ex-factory price and terminal guidance price have not changed.
However, the Red Star Capital Bureau learned that when Kweichow Moutai products circulated to the market, another pricing system was brutally developed outside the official pricing system. For ordinary consumers, it is usually difficult to purchase products with official pricing.
For the 53-degree Feitian Moutai, the ex-factory price is less than 1,000 yuan, and the terminal guide price is 1,499 yuan, but its market price has long exceeded 2,000 yuan/bottle, and even hovered around 3,000 yuan/bottle.
The news of the forum has cooled the long-hot liquor market and secondary market.
“Affected by that meeting, the price of (Moutai) has dropped quite a bit recently, especially the 53-degree flying Maotai, and the most one day has dropped 200 yuan.” Gao Kai (pseudonym) is a scalper who sells all kinds of Maotai, he said , The recent lowest price appeared on August 25.
According to the Moutai Quotes Network, on August 19, the price of Feitian Moutai (in bulk) for 21 years was about 3170 yuan per bottle; from August 20, its price fell for many consecutive days, and on August 25, it fell to 2750 yuan. /bottle.
In other words, the price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai once dropped by 420 yuan/bottle after the symposium.
“Although the price has dropped a lot, there were not many shipments on the market at that time, and everyone could not get the goods.” Gao Kai said that on August 26, the price of 53° Flying Moutai had risen to 2850 yuan per bottle. , Some areas rebounded to 2900 yuan/bottle.
According to the Moutai market network, on August 26, the price of Feitian Moutai (in bulk) for 21 years was 2,910 yuan/bottle; on August 27, its price rose again, reaching 2,990 yuan/bottle.
Screenshot from Moutai Quotes Network
Distributors strictly implement the “three 100%”
“Whether it is effective depends on whose hands the goods are in”
After the symposium, on August 25, some media reported that as the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day “Double Festival” approached, Kweichow Moutai launched a number of measures to stabilize wine prices and maintain the normal market price system, including requiring distributors to strictly implement the “Three 100%” etc.
The so-called “three 100%” refers to 100% unpacking sales, 100% inventory clearing, and 100% street setting services.
On August 26, a Kweichow Moutai dealer confirmed the above news to the Red Star Capital Bureau.
“Generally speaking, the original box (Moutai) is more expensive than bulk. For example, the 53-degree flying Maotai in bulk now costs about 2900 yuan per bottle. And there are 6 bottles in an original box, and if it has not been opened, it is about 3700. -3800 yuan/bottle, more than 20,000 yuan per box.” Gao Kai said.
Distributor Lin Tian (a pseudonym) told the Red Star Capital Bureau that they must now unpack and retail, even if consumers buy 6 bottles at a time, they must also unpack them. “This is also to avoid over-speculation of the original box in the market.”
Screenshot from Kweichow Moutai official website
Some consumers told the Red Star Capital Bureau that if they went to a Moutai dealership store and wanted to buy 53-degree Flying Moutai for 1,499 yuan, the answer most of the time was “out of stock.”
“53 degrees Feitian Maotai, we have always sold 1499 yuan / bottle. As for whether there is any goods, it depends on the situation of delivery to us from the winery. We will not stock up, and the inventory must be cleared before major holidays. Zero.” Lin Tian said to the Red Star Capital Bureau.
Will Kweichow Moutai’s series of measures be effective?
“Whether these measures are useful depends on whose hands the wine is in.” Gao Kai said to the Red Star Capital Bureau.
Another dealer told the Red Star Capital Bureau that dealers cannot stock up on goods, “Now the goods are in the hands of the scalpers, not in our hands. The dealers will not have the goods in the hands of (Guizhou) Moutai, which Dare to hit the bullet hole?”
Moutai dealers are declining
How do scalpers stock up?Guizhou’s local daily heavy volume is very large
Kweichow Moutai’s financial report shows that it mainly sells through two channels, namely direct sales and wholesale agency channels. The former refers to self-operated channels, while the latter refers to social distributors, supermarkets and e-commerce channels.
As of June 30, Kweichow Moutai had a total of 2,096 dealers in China.
In the first half of this year, Kweichow Moutai added 62 dealers, mainly the dealers of Maotai series liquor; the decrease of 12 dealers was mainly Moutai dealers.
Screenshot from Kweichow Moutai’s 2021 semi-annual report
The Red Star Capital Bureau learned that the Maotai series wine refers to Moutai Prince Liquor, Moutai Yingbin Liquor and Kweichow Daqu, while Moutai refers to Guizhou Moutai Liquor. The 53° Feitian Moutai, which is popular in the market, is among them.
After the reduction of Moutai distributors, the amount of liquor placed in this channel may also be reduced. Where did the reduced liquor go?
Gao Kai told the Red Star Capital Bureau that based on his observations, the 53° Flying Moutai has many local channels for heavy volume in Guizhou. “In Guizhou, it’s easy to do this, and the amount is a lot every day.”
“If you fly over, you can buy 2 bottles at the airport; you can buy 2 bottles if you stay in certain designated hotels; you can buy 2 bottles if you buy 700 yuan of specialty products at certain designated stores… If you are lucky, you can buy 8 at the original price once you go. Bottle.” Gao Kai said to the Red Star Capital Bureau.
Calculated at the price of 1499 yuan per bottle, it costs 11992 yuan to buy 8 bottles of 53° Flying Moutai. Suppose it is sold at the market price (2990 yuan/bottle) on August 27, and you can get 23,920 yuan. This difference is enough to cover the cost of round-trip air tickets, accommodation, etc., and there is still a profit.
“This method of operation is suitable for round-trip air tickets below 1,000 yuan.” Gao Kai said that for people who are far away and expensive, it is suitable to snap up the original price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai through some online sales channels.
The stock price has repeatedly fallen below the 1,600 yuan mark
How will the liquor sector go in the future?Disagreements between institutions
Not only alcohol products were affected. After the news of the aforementioned forum was released, on August 20, August 21, and August 26, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai fell below the 1,600 yuan/share mark many times. .
Among them, on August 20, Kweichow Moutai had its lowest share price of 1525.50 yuan per share in nearly a year. Compared with the highest point of 2608.59 yuan per share in mid-February, Kweichow Moutai’s biggest decline during the year was more than 41%, and the total market value has evaporated by 1.36 trillion yuan.
Kweichow Moutai stock price chart this year
The Red Star Capital Board noticed that there seems to be disagreement among institutions on the future trend of the liquor sector.
Public data shows that as of the end of the second quarter, although Kweichow Moutai is still the stock with the highest total market capitalization, the total number of public funds holding Kweichow Moutai has decreased from 2,164 at the end of 2020 to 1,661.
For star fund manager Zhang Kun, Kweichow Moutai was once the largest stock in the “E Fund Blue Chip Selected Hybrid” under his management. As of March 31 this year, the fund held 4.32 million shares of Kweichow Moutai, accounting for about 9.86% of its net asset value. At the same time, according to the first quarter financial report disclosed by Kweichow Moutai, the fund is also its top ten shareholders, holding about 0.34%.
However, by the semi-annual report, the fund has disappeared from the list of the top ten shareholders of Kweichow Moutai; at the same time, Kweichow Moutai has also disappeared from the list of the top ten stocks of the fund’s net asset value.
In addition, Dongxing Food and Drink pointed out in the research report that the state is concerned about the price of Moutai, which may bring about further strict control of Moutai terminal prices in the short term. Moutai may increase market supply before the Mid-Autumn Festival to stabilize market prices. Even if the price fluctuates, the impact on the industry will be short-term. It is judged that the demand for the liquor industry will continue to grow steadily next year, and it will not change the judgment of the industry’s prosperity.
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Editor in charge: Chen Zhijie
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