picturefilm source/Xinhua
■China Economic Times reporter Xu Weibing
The June Caixin China Manufacturing PMI released on July 5 rebounded by 3.6 percentage points to 51.7, and the general service industry business activity index (service industry PMI) recorded 54.5, a sharp rise of 13.1 percentage points from May, ending the three consecutive The contraction state of the month and rose to the highest since August 2021, in line with the data trend previously released by the National Bureau of Statistics. This reflects that with the overall improvement of the epidemic situation and the orderly relaxation of relevant prevention and control measures, the production and business activities of Chinese enterprises are returning to growth. In particular, the production and operation of the service industry has recovered rapidly, and the industry’s prosperity has risen sharply to the expansion range. Superimposed on the accelerated implementation of policies such as stabilizing growth and promoting consumption recently, the momentum of consumption recovery and replenishment has accelerated, and the service industry is slowly recovering.
The supply and demand of the service industry has improved, and there are obvious signs of recovery
In terms of sub-item data, both the supply and demand of the service industry have recovered. In June, the service sector business activity index and new orders index returned to the expansion range, and the improvement in supply was better than demand.
Shi Lei, deputy director of public relations for Hefu noodles related brands, told the China Economic Times reporter that with the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures, the business activities of catering companies have resumed, the number of customers and order consumption have returned to the level at the beginning of the year, and the sales momentum of dine-in and take-out is very strong. it is good.
Wang Xiaofei, founder of Ma Liuji, told reporters that Ma Liuji opened nearly 30 stores across the country in less than two years. This process has always been accompanied by repeated epidemics and changes in prevention and control measures, but the most important quality in the catering industry, When offline is not available, Ma Liuji’s orders obtained through live broadcast and takeaway are three times that of offline sales.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, said in an interview with this reporter that the impact of the epidemic will lead to short-term shelving of consumer formats in some industries, but it will also force some consumer formats to become hot, and even spawn new ones. consumer business. As long as the epidemic is effectively controlled, under the strong promotion of many consumption-promoting policies, new and old consumption formats will burst into new vitality, and the accelerated recovery of the service industry is worth looking forward to.
However, Lv Suiqi, deputy director of the Department of Finance, School of Economics, Peking University, said in an interview with this reporter that although the business activities of the service industry rebounded strongly in June, the business expectation index was only the same as that in May, and some companies are still worried that the future epidemic will Continue to impact operations and customer needs.
Bai Ming believes that continuous repair in the post-epidemic era is still the main line of current economic operation, and it is necessary to actively promote the resumption of work and production on the premise of precise prevention and control. The resumption of work and production in the service industry must be continuously improved on the basis of summarizing experience, so as to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the economy. It is suggested that the assistance and relief policies should focus more on the service industry, employees of manufacturing enterprises, flexible workers and low-income groups affected by the epidemic.
Focus on supporting small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households
The service industry is an important part of the national economy, and the main players in the service industry play an important role in prospering the market, promoting employment, and maintaining stability. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, market players in the service industry, especially small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, have faced the challenge of operating difficulties.
However, for the catering industry, which has been greatly affected by the epidemic, 11 departments including the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission recently jointly issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Implementation of Supporting Policies for the Restoration and Development of the Catering Industry”. item work. According to the news released on the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission on June 22, in order to further promote the implementation of the rescue policy related to enterprises, the person in charge of the Industry Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized an online symposium, requiring continuous research and understanding of the operation of small and micro enterprises in the service industry and individual industrial and commercial households. Status quo, implementation of corporate-related bailout policies, and policy recommendations.
Bai Ming believes that it is necessary to find a balance between epidemic prevention and stable economic operation to ensure the resumption of work and production in the service industry to the greatest extent possible. In order to better play the effect of the policy, it is necessary to further form a joint force to effectively guide residents to stabilize jobs and increase income, enhance their expectations for future development prospects, and promote consumption.
Lv Suiqi believes that with the steady growth policy, the macro economy has entered a repair channel, which will jointly support the steady recovery of consumption. However, the recurrence of the epidemic will also have a delayed indirect impact on consumption through channels such as impacting employment income and boosting savings demand. Constraining the recovery of consumption. Although the current central and local governments have introduced a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, it is still necessary to adjust and optimize the epidemic prevention and control measures in a timely manner to ensure the accessibility and practicality of the policies and the continuous repairs brought about by changes in the epidemic prevention and control measures. sex.
Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said in an interview with this reporter that with the continuous follow-up of the policy, the society will return to normal operation, and the economy will quickly return to a normal state. In this process, the service industry will always be a weather vane.
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