There are those who speak of a million jobs at risk, with the end of the general blockade of economic layoffs, from 1 July. Who is more prudent, halves the estimate. And again those who do not make forecasts, believing however that, between exceptions to the block in force since last summer, and restructuring already underway, companies are repositioning themselves, and therefore they need not to lay off, but innovative tools to manage the reorganization phases. (expansion contracts, active policies, reinforced subsidies, hiring incentives, just to name a few).
The post June 30 issue is a delicate one. In the Sostegni decree, the Minister of Labor, Andrea Orlando, designed a double protection regime: until 30 June and until 31 October, depending on the sector of use of the Covid-19 cash box, pending the reorganization of the cig and real services for the work.
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Having said that, what awaits us on July 1st? Basically little. We will not see any wave of layoffs. This is because the labor law establishes times and methods of withdrawal which may involve significant procedural delays (a few weeks or a few months). The regulatory framework is very fragmented, based on multiple variables: size of the company, number of workers involved, reason for dismissal, etc.
We asked two experts of the caliber of Arturo Maresca (La Sapienza University of Rome) and Sandro Mainardi (Alma Mater University of Bologna), big names in consulting for companies for 40 years, to explain well what will happen at the end of June (and the end of October) of the ban on dismissal. Their summary is this: «In July, a minimum increase in individual layoffs will be possible. The collective ones could be more consistent in the autumn. But a lot will depend on the epidemiological trend and the recovery ». From 1 July, therefore, a “tsunami” is not expected.
Let’s start with collective redundancies
“The procedures started after 17 March 2020 are void, due to the emergency block, and will have to be restarted – explains Professor Mainardi -. The procedures started before that date, but after February 23, 2020, were suspended by law, from July or November, therefore, the deadlines will start again “.