Home » Franco: “Strong growth in the second quarter”. Visco: “Recession in Italy only with a stop to Russian gas”

Franco: “Strong growth in the second quarter”. Visco: “Recession in Italy only with a stop to Russian gas”

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Franco: “Strong growth in the second quarter”.  Visco: “Recession in Italy only with a stop to Russian gas”

MILANO – For the quarter just ended “we estimate robust growth, which brings the growth acquired for 2022” above 3% “, said the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, to the assembly of the ABI. “The difficulties and risks ahead of us are important, however it would be wrong to abandon oneself to pessimism in a phase in which there are multiple signs of ferment”, added the minister, highlighting the growth in investments and the effects of the NRP which will materialize from 2023 to 2026. Franco reiterated the strong elements of uncertainty, but also that “there are valid reasons to be confident that with the dynamism of our production system, with incisive government action and with the essential contribution of the social partners, growth will not stop “. On the front of containing the impact of expensive energy – he said -, “the government intends to continue” the action, but the interventions will be “more selective” and calibrated on the economic conditions of families.

Visco: “Recession only with the blocking of supplies”

For the governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco, Italy will end up in recession only in the event of a scenario of blocking gas supplies from Russia. According to Visco, in this adverse scenario, GDP (which should grow in line with the eurozone in the two-year period) would undergo “a contraction in the average of the two-year period 2022-23, to return to growth in 2024”. There would be “direct repercussions of this interruption on sectors with the highest energy intensity, further increases in the prices of raw materials, a more marked slowdown in foreign trade, a worsening of confidence and an increase in uncertainty”

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According to the governor, “comforting” indications arrive on the front of medium-long term inflation and “from the dynamics of wages, which at the moment does not seem to indicate the start of a dangerous run-up between prices and wages”. For Visco, these signals reveal how the objective of bringing inflation back into line “can be achieved through a gradual normalization of monetary policy and without causing an abrupt slowdown in the economy”.

Patuelli: “Npl increase, emergency measures are needed”

“Non-performing loans can start to grow again, despite the constant activities of banks to reduce them: business crises can grow that still need to be accompanied by emergency finance measures”, said the president ABI instead. Antonio Patuelli at the annual meeting. During the Covid crisis “non-performing loans that did not explode also due to the presence of moratoriums that must be reintroduced with the extension” of the pandemic and with the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

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