ROME. «We are not out of the crisis yet but the situation has clearly improved. Gas prices will continue to fall in the coming months too, but not too much, another -10% is conceivable» explains the president of Nomina energia Davide Tabarelli, convinced that even after March the government will have the convenience to extend the aid given the positive effect that the drop in regulated energy prices has already had on inflation.
Professor what should we expect in the coming months, will gas prices continue to fall?
«Today’s prices have already dropped a lot: with futures around 57 euros per megawatt hour we have already returned to the levels of before the outbreak of the war, but we have not yet returned to those before the crisis. Within the great chaos in which we find ourselves, the trend certainly leads to a normalization of quotations. Having said this, however, other price rebounds cannot be ruled out: before the end of winter there could in fact be a new cold snap and then there could be less gas availability. On the other hand, however, the increase in interest rates causes demand to drop even if the recession recedes».
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The declines of the last few weeks, on the other hand, what are they due to?
«Apart from the climate, what has an influence in this phase is demand, which has fallen by 25%. And as happened in the last year, prices discount everything immediately, so it is possible that the tendency is to remain with gas prices at current levels, around 55-57 euros. Then, coming from one of the most violent shocks in the history of European energy, imagining that everything stabilizes quickly is a bit difficult, almost impossible. However, having fallen below 70 euros actually marks a return to normality».
After the -19.5% relative to the first quarter already communicated by Arera in April, can we expect a further drop in electricity bills?
“Electricity prices, also in the light of the fall in gas prices, should in turn fall by approximately 10%”. This even if the current support provided by the government were to run out? «I am convinced that the government will certainly find other forms of compensation. Because as we saw from yesterday’s inflation, the drop in the index from 12.6 to 10.1% is substantially due to the trend changes in regulated energy prices: they won’t let this possibility slip away».