Gas tensions continue, with the indefinite stop of Russian gas flows announced by Gazprom last week which brought new volatility to the price of raw materials. The price of the Ttf the Amsterdam (European gas future reference) has gained over 23% since Monday and even today it is moving up by 4.5%, finding itself again at 230 euros per megawatt hour; fortunately still far from the all-time highs recorded at the end of August at 330 eur / Mwh.
In this sense, the race of European countries to try to contain an energy crisis that now seems imminent and thus avoiding blackouts and rationing scattered throughout the Old Continent.
In this regard, the intervention plan of European Commission expects to raise 140 billion euros for consumers by drawing on the extra profits of energy companies, but also thanks to the mandatory containment of energy demand.
However, uncertainties remain as to how these measures will be implemented by Member States which are still deeply divided on the plans to be signed. In this regard, in the meeting last week, the European countries have long discussed the introduction to the ceiling on the price of gasa proposal that has not received approval from the European Commission according to which the measure would have more costs than benefits.
Focus on storages
Furthermore, a further assessment can be made as the European Plans do not yet include any solution on how to increase supply in a market that has only been restricted since the outbreak of the conflict.
Now the focus remains on the storages that a Europe level are 84% full, but the German energy regulator warns that the country could face “waves” of shortages in the event of a cold winter. In this sense, in the event of a severe energy shortage, demand reduction measures will be increasingly numerous and important. Germany has 88% full stockpiles, while Italy has 86% and Cingolani plans need at least 90% stockpiles by November to be sure of facing a winter without particular hitches.
The graphic framework
As we see the Ttf gas after reaching an all-time high at altitude 330 euro per megawatt hour it reversed direction from those highs to the value of 185 euro per megawatt hour, with a decline of 43%. However, the blocking of Russian gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline led to strong volatility on gas prices (this can also be seen from the larger size of the candles) and from the support in the area of € 185 per megawatt hour it rebounded again, exceeding the I raised the 50-period moving average that passes through the 200 euro area.
Now the price is moving around 230 euros and in case of further strength, the next resistance levels that could prevent new rises on the Ttf are given by the resistance levels previously placed at 250 euro al megawattora (level from which the growing trendline built from June and also confirmed in July also passes). On the contrary, the main supports remain at 200 euros and then at 185 euros per megawatt hour.