Bank of Italy in its latest Economic Bulletin puts its hand to estimates on Italian GDP. On average for the year, GDP is expected to increase by 3.8 per cent in 2022 (compared to the + 4% indicated in December), by 2.5% in 2023 and by 1.7% in 2024. The scenario is based on the ‘hypothesis that the recent rise in infections has negative repercussions in the short term on mobility and consumer behavior, but does not require a severe tightening of restrictive measures. It is assumed that from spring the spread of the epidemic will subside.
GDP, which stood 1.3 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels at the end of last summer, would recover around the middle of this year.
Bank of Italy notes that growth in Italy remained high in the third quarter of 2021, supported by the expansion of household consumption. Subsequently, output slowed down: on the basis of Bank of Italy models, in the fourth quarter GDP would have recorded growth of around half a percentage point. The increase in value added weakened both in industry and in the service sector.