MILANO – The Italian economy is slipping as expected in negative ground in the first quarter of 2022, even if the backlash is – according to preliminary Istat estimates – less serious than might have been foreseen. Between January and March, the Italian GDP, expressed in chain-linked values with the reference year 2015, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter (ending at + 0.7%) and grew 5.8% in trend terms. In the Economic and Financial Document, the government had predicted a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.5%. In the morning forecast of the Unicredit analysts, a contraction of 0.4 per cent was assumed. Istat also receives data oninflationwhich in April slowed slightly to 6.2% (from + 6.5% in the previous month) but extends more forcefully out of energy with the shopping cart which rises by 6%.
The slowdown of the GDP
The provisional data does not yet allow us to go into detail on the components of GDP: Istat for now summarizes that the decline is the result “of a increase in added value in the agricultural sectorforestry and fishing, of a reduction in that of services and one stationarity in industry“. On the demand side,” there is a positive contribution from the domestic component (gross of inventories) and a negative contribution from the net foreign component “.
However, the figure lowers the variation acquired for 2022. If at the end of last year, the Italian economy had inherited a boost that ensured a + 2.3% even in the event that it was put into “neutral” (ie in the presence of zero cyclical variations in the following quarters of the year), now the acquired variation indicated by Istat is + 2.2%.
In its comment on the data, the Institute explains that “the Italian economy, after four quarters of sustained growth, recorded a slight decline in activity in the first quarter of 2022. In trend terms, growth was still very strong, at just under 6 per cent. The preliminary estimate, which is, as always, provisional in nature, reflects a growth in agriculture on the supply side, a substantial stationary nature of industry and a decline in services “.
Never as in this period have forecasts been volatile and closely linked to what is happening in Ukraine, with repercussions on raw materials, energy, supply chains. Staying at the Def, the executive is betting on “a moderate recovery, thanks to services”, but does not hide the “downside risks” that weigh on the scenario. The same Confindustria he still sees a negative period, which would mean technical recession (two quarters in a row with a “minus” sign). The gas game will be decisive for the next few months: in the Economics and Finance Document, two scenarios were outlined in the face of the shutdown of the Russian taps. In one, held thanks to the efficient diversification of sources, the 2022 GDP could get away with a loss of 0.8 points this year and 1.1 in 2023. The bill is far more serious in the event of an inability to perfectly replace the Moscow gas: bill prices would rise further and the Italian economy would drop by more than 4 points in two years.
Also there Germania today released data on its economy, showing growth of 0.2% in the first quarter of the year. Berlin came from a negative figure (-0.3%) in the last period of 2021, the mini-rebound was expected but analysts expected a progress of 0.1% in the initial phase of 2022. Compared to the first quarter of 2021 , the economy grew by 3.7% (+ 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2021) and beating the estimates that had forecast + 3.6%.
Stagnation, on the other hand, for the France which puts a round zero to the box of the GDP of the first quarter of 2022 of France, compared to the previous quarter, against an estimated increase of 0.3%. The data shows an annual growth of 5.3% against the previous 5.5%. Spending by French consumers fell by 1.3% in March against an expected increase of 1.2% and a rise of 0.9% in February. Worth noting is the new increase in inflation which marks + 4.8% in April, beyond expectations.
The price rush
In addition to the data on the economy, those on prices were also particularly expected from Istat. Still according to preliminary estimates, inflation slows down in April after 9 months of acceleration. According to preliminary Istat estimates, the national consumer price index for the entire community (Nic), gross of tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.2% on a monthly basis and of 6.2% on an annual basis. (from + 6.5% of the previous month). The slowdown in inflation on a trend basis is mainly due to the prices of energy goods (whose growth goes from + 50.9% in March to + 42.4%) and is attributable both to the prices of regulated energy (from +94, 6% to + 71.4%) and to those of non-regulated energy sources (from + 36.4% to + 31.7%).
Italian inflation measured with the harmonized index of consumer prices (Ipca) of European reference, in April recorded an increase on a monthly basis of 0.6% and 6.6% on an annual basis (from + 6.8% in the previous month).
For the ‘shopping cart’, that is, for food and home and personal care products that are part of the daily expenditure of families, inflation accelerated in April to 6%, one point more than the 5% in March. Istat notes this based on initial estimates. To a large extent, processed food is the main factor, passing on a trend basis from + 3.9% in March to + 5.4%. If the increases, albeit sustained, in energy slow down, inflationary tensions, the Institute underlines, continue to spread to other sectors: processed food, durable and non-durable goods and transport services.