The bill that Vladimir Putin’s Russia will have to pay for invading Ukraine and being isolated from the world will be very high. JP Morgan expects Russia’s GDP to fall by 35% in the second quarter of this year, and to fall by 7% for the whole of the year 2022. Furthermore, “Russia’s GDP will report a loss from its peak to the lowest point. low that will touch, approximately 12%, compared to -10% in 1998, -11% in 2008 (the year in which the global financial crisis exploded) and -9% caused by the Covid-19 shock “, yes reads in the note to clients written by Anatoliy Shal, a strategist at JPMorgan, reported by the Reuters agency.
JP Morgan expects a drop in exports of around 13% this year, a contraction in domestic demand of around 10% and a drop in imports of -30%.
“What is clear is that Russia’s growing economic and political isolation will translate into lower (GDP) growth in the long term – added Shal – We believe that Russia’s growth will be around zero next year, and the ‘1% in the long term “.