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GDP, Treasury: robust growth despite a very difficult context

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GDP, Treasury: robust growth despite a very difficult context

The flash estimate of Istat indicates that after the slowdown at the beginning of the year, the Italian economy recorded a 1% growth in GDP and an increase of 4.6% compared to the corresponding period of 2021. Acquired annual growth (ie the evolution that would occur if GDP remained unchanged in the second half of the year) is 3.4 per cent – higher than the 3.1 per cent forecast in the DEF.

“The significant increase in GDP in the second quarter occurred in a context of great difficulty due to the war in Ukraine, the surge in international energy and food prices and the rise in interest rates globally”, explains the MEF in a note.

“The further strengthening of the activity in the services sector – continues the Treasury – was favored by the elimination of most of the restrictive measures linked to Covid-19. The industry benefited from an overall favorable trend in both international trade and domestic demand, including for investments ”.

“The Italian economy has been supported by the substantial interventions carried out with the 2022 Budget Law and with the numerous decrees issued by the Government. These measures have made it possible to cushion the impact of the rise in energy costs on households and on the competitiveness of businesses. Industrial policy interventions were also launched, such as those in support of the car sector, and dialogue with businesses intensified in order to enhance the incentive tools for investment and innovation. Although in a context marked by the tragic events in Ukraine, the investment climate in Italy remains positive ”.

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Finally, the Treasury notes that the recovery from the crisis caused by the pandemic can be considered completed, since GDP in the second quarter was clearly above the average level of 2019. “It is now necessary to continue to support the purchasing power of households and the competitiveness of companies in the second half of the year, as well as continue with the work of implementing the PNRR and boosting investments and innovation ”, concludes the note.

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