MILANO – The Italian recovery strengthened in the second quarter, when GDP grew by 2.7% compared to the first three months of the year. A “very sustained” growth, according to Istat, which released preliminary data, and which puts the country on the path of recovery that many observers – national and international – now estimate can reach + 5% or even exceed it during the year , Delta variant permitting.
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The + 2.7% traced by the Institute of Statistics makes it possible to estimate one change acquired for the whole of 2021 of + 4.8%: this would be the rate of growth if the country went on “in neutral” in the second half of the year and there were no economic changes in the remaining two quarters. The certified data this morning exceeds analysts’ expectations: those of Intesa Sanpaolo, before it was made official, spoke of a “significant expansion after the substantial stagnation at the beginning of the year” but indicated economic activity growing by 1.5% quarterly, a figure almost doubled. The consensus among economists stood for an economic expansion of 1.3% on a quarterly basis.
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In its comment, the Institute notes that “after a first quarter of 2021 in slight recovery, in the second quarter of the year the Italian economy recorded very sustained growth. The result benefited above all from a strong recovery in the market, the most penalized by the crisis, of a growth in industry and a substantial stationary nature of agriculture “.
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In compared with the second quarter of 2020, the leap is enormous: + 17.3%. But “the exceptionally marked trend increase in GDP derives from the comparison with the minimum point reached in the second quarter of 2020 at the height of the health crisis”. As usual, Istat recalls, “the preliminary estimate is provisional in nature, as it is based on indicators that are partly incomplete and subject to revision in subsequent quarters, and mainly on an assessment of the supply components of GDP”.
In the preliminary data, Istat does not go into the details of the composition of growth. According to Intesa Sanpaolo, “it should come entirely from domestic demand (especially from consumption), while trade with foreign countries could have slowed down GDP again as in the previous three months. On the supply side, the added value will be driven by services, in the presence of a still positive contribution from industry and construction. The large rebound phase should also extend to the summer quarter, unless there is a significant deterioration in the health situation “.
Today the other main European economies have also released data on growth for the second quarter, and it emerges that Italy puts its head in front of the Germany which saw the product rise by 1.5% compared to the previous quarter, after the setback at the beginning of the year. Growth also tepid in France, where GDP rose by 0.9% against zero growth in the first three months of the year. The boost came from consumption and investments by companies and the Paris gap with pre-pandemic levels is reduced to 3.3%. In acceleration the Spain, + 2.8% quarterly against expectations for + 2% and + 19.8% per annum: domestic consumption pushes the Iberian economy (+ 6.6% for households) while exports are still weak (+0 , 4%).