The German ballot boxes decreed the victory of theSPD (25.7% of the votes), followed by duo CDU / CSU and from the exploit of gave. Fourth place for consents to theFDP, which could fall into what would be the “traffic light” coalition with the winning party and that of the environmentalists. This is the most accredited hypothesis by experts, which would pave the way for a government led by the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, successor appointed after the end of the very long Merkel era. An executive with policies favorable to sustainability and a less harsh tax regime. The picture emerges from the Credit Suisse report.
Green investments on the rise
According to analysts of the Swiss institute, the “traffic light” coalition (SPD-Verdi-FDP) has the 60% from chance to materialize. This government would ask the SPD for a concrete effort on investments green (the Greens would like 50 billion annually) and none significant tax increase (to please the FDP). This coalition could then increase public spending by financing works related to infrastructure and increase integration with Brussels (perhaps making the Recovery Fund permanent). And it could also make a significant increase in the minimum wage.
Bund and Euro in positive
With these premises on the level of political program, i markets would welcome the “traffic light” coalition and could push prices even higher German government bonds. And looking at the whole Eurozone, these developments could favor one reflationary scenario in the Old Continent. Furthermore, with the current economic indicators, also making a comparison with the United States, one can be expressed positive evaluation also onEuro which appears at this stage underrated.
More attractive European assets
Returning to focus on Germany, the excess of savings in the country and his surplus commercial it has always represented one of the most significant imbalances both in Europe and globally. The under-consumption of Berlinconsequently, it has ensured that external interventions in aid of the peripheral countries of Europe in phases of crisis were implemented through a reduction in domestic consumption and real wages. Therefore, a growth in German consumption would also increase the resilience of the Eurozone, increasing the growth rates of the member states. With the result of making European assets more attractive to global investors.