Home » GF Fund: “Rate Cut” Boosts Market Risk Appetite, Focuses on Investment Opportunities in Two Directions | GF Fund_Sina Finance_Sina

GF Fund: “Rate Cut” Boosts Market Risk Appetite, Focuses on Investment Opportunities in Two Directions | GF Fund_Sina Finance_Sina

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Original title: GF Fund: “Rate Cut” Boosts Market Risk Preference, Focuses on Two Major Investment Opportunities Source: Shanghai Securities News China Securities Network

Shanghai Securities News (Reporter Zhu Wenbin) On January 17, the People’s Bank of China announced that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, it will carry out 700 billion yuan of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) operations and 100 billion yuan of open market reverse repurchases. The winning bid rates for medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations and open market reverse repurchase operations all fell by 10 basis points to 2.85% and 2.10%. GF Fund believes that the timing and magnitude of this rate cut are slightly higher than expected. After the benefits are realized, the interest rate is expected to remain low and volatile, and the stock market risk appetite is expected to be boosted. Considering the combination of “steady growth” and high-end manufacturing, the investment-side benefits from steady growth and steady consumption growth are worth exploring.

The Macro Strategy Department of GF Fund said that although the market had a certain rate cut expectation, most people thought it was mid-February, and the magnitude was expected to be about 5 basis points. Slightly exceeded expectations.

According to the analysis, there are three reasons for this rate cut. First, there are marginal changes in policy thinking, and more emphasis is placed on the use of aggregate tools; second, the pressure on economic fundamentals is increasing, and the pressures from the short-term epidemic and real estate all point to the risk of declining demand and weakening expectations, and high-frequency data shows the urgency of steady growth Third, the Fed will raise interest rates soon, and the domestic easing window period will be shortened. On the whole, the central bank has comprehensively considered factors such as the urgency of stable domestic growth and the shortening of the easing window period, so the rate cut this time is earlier, and it also reflects a certain degree of strength.

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Looking ahead, the Macro Strategy Department of GF Fund believes that on January 20 (this Thursday), the LPR will likely be reduced by 10 basis points, and the 5-year LPR linked to mortgage loans will also be reduced by 5-10 basis points. , mainly affecting medium and long-term corporate loans and personal mortgage loans.

Corresponding to the market, GF Fund believes that in terms of interest rates, after a short-term interest rate cut, the benefits will be realized, and then it will enter the policy observation period, which is expected to be dominated by low fluctuations. For stocks, the rate cut boosted market risk appetite. The stable growth chain may be active repeatedly in the near future, but the upward elasticity is limited and it is difficult to exceed the optimistic expectations of the market. When the valuation of the stable growth chain returns to a reasonable range, market funds will look for new investment directions in high-boom fields.

From a structural point of view, the characteristics of “heavy institutional positions, high valuations and high prosperity” stocks in the A-share market significantly underperformed stocks with low valuations eased last week. GF Fund believes that the core reason is that after the previous adjustment, the high-end manufacturing sector represented by electric vehicles and photovoltaics is more “cost-effective” in terms of valuation and transaction structure. Therefore, driven by stocks that disclosed better-than-expected results, the high-end manufacturing sector with high prosperity began to rebound in the second half of last week.

Taking into account the degree of prosperity, valuation and transaction structure, GF Fund believes that the current high-end manufacturing sector may still be the strongest direction of prosperity. Considering the combination of “steady growth” and high-end manufacturing, industry opportunities can be explored along the following lines: The investment-side benefits from steady growth include green power, distribution network transformation, photovoltaics, wind power, energy storage, UHV, consumer building materials etc. The direction of steady growth of consumption includes auto parts, auto electronics, etc.

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