Mps, Leonardo, TIM and much more: these will be the dossiers that will burn the most on the desk of the imminent and increasingly certain Meloni government.
The analysts of Banca Akros present to investors the dossiers relating to the world of companies listed on the Piazza Affari that the new center-right government, almost certainly a Meloni government, will have to manage after the victory at political elections on Sunday 25 September. Emphasizing that the outcome of the vote “It is almost in line and perhaps better than expected”.
The facts are remembered:
“Giorgia Meloni is the winner of the Italian elections and will probably become prime minister (Brothers of Italy the first party); the Lega collapsed, while Forza Italia did well in a reasonable way. The center-right coalition has done slightly worse than what emerged from the polls (which gave it to 43%), but it should get a comfortable majority in both the House and the Senate ”.
Highlighted “the role of Forza Italia, which pcould be crucial for the center-right coalition, providing some form of guarantee on international alliances (Italy in NATO and in the EU) and on the attitude towards Europe “,
After talking about the defeat of the PD and the comeback of the 5 Star Movement with respect to the polls, Banca Akros stressed that, in general, these Italian political elections of 2022 did not give “Big surprises”, to then list i “Main aspects that a new center-right government will have to face”.
Banks and the doom loop risk
Banks: in this case Banca Akros refers to the well-known problem of doom loop, or the deadly embrace between banks and BTPs in their belly.
Banks and BTPs, with higher rates (re) focus on doom loops. And interest spending is set to rise
At this specific time, “Exposed to higher BTP rates due to their large holdings in the Italian public debt market and therefore to the related financing costs, banks are vulnerable to the worsening of the economic outlook. The change of government and Meloni’s appeal to review the PNRR could threaten Italy’s ability to accomplish what it has committed to do to obtain EU funds ”.
It is remembered that “Intesa SanPaolo is the main Italian debt holder (BTP) after the ECB“ and that its CEO Carlo Messina has repeatedly asked Rome to use state assets and high levels of savings to support the public debtin order to promote a certain “financial independence” of the country.
State brick cuts public debt. The idea of the FABI that mentions Messina of Intesa SanPaolo
Messina (Intesa SanPaolo) ‘on the BTP-Bund spread: no problem rise,’ today debt is not a priority for anyone, Italy seen as a growth option ‘
The call from Carlo Messina (Intesa SanPaolo) to lock down BTPs: ‘Italian savings support public debt, GDP growth is an obsession’
Unicredit: are dances reopened with Mps?
“A new government – reads the analysis by Banca Akros – could offer to UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel the opportunity to start from scratch, after his decision to decline the acquisition of Mps proposed by the Treasurya factor that has damaged relations with the Draghi government.
In the case of Mps, “The new government will be characterized by the (usual) promises to reprivatize the bank, after the previous executive managed to secure an extension of one year (compared to the dealine of 2021) to reduce the 64% stake it holds in the capital ” of Monte dei Paschi.
Mps in the jaws of speculation, title is priceless even today. From Meloni yes to a capital increase. But Monte di Stato continues to scare
Melons and the ongoing energy crisis
“Italy has introduced measures for tax energy companies, in order to support businesses and households in a context of rising energy costs. The manifesto of the center-right coalition is in favor of the proposed imposing a ceiling on gas prices at European level, idea advanced by the current government (Draghi) “. But it is also an idea, underline by Banca Akros, “that it is not yet able to obtain the broad support of Europe”.
In this situation, “the center-right government wants to negotiate with Brussels on the matter any changes to the PNRRto increase spending to tackle the energy crisis and relaunch investments in nuclear power. Meloni has ruled out the option of hiring the full control of the national energy groups Eni and Enel, contrary to what the French government did (by Emmanuel Macron) with EDF, confirming that it is still the government’s duty to protect assets of national importance and avoid foreign acquisitions. The new government will also decide whether to renew the contracts of the CEOs of Enel and Eni next year ”.
Snam and the regasification plant in Piombino
Banca Akros reminds that “Snam, a group active in the methane transport market, storage and regasification plants, purchased in June a new floating regasifier to support efforts to find alternative gas supplies “.
“Snam expects to obtain approval from the government and local authorities to start docking the regasification vessel in the port of Piombino (Livorno) in Tuscany, by the end of October. The goal is to connect the terminal to the distribution network by next spring, in order to increase LNG imports “.
Defense sector: focus on Leonardo
With regard to the defense sector, Banca Akros points out that “Meloni has shown his on several occasions strong support for the Atlantic alliance in favor of Ukrainepromising to increase defense spending ”. For its part, “il CEO of Leonardo said on July 28 that the group was working to reach an agreement for the sale of OTO Melara (subsidiary of Leonardo active in the production of cannons, turrets, tanks and crawlers) and WASS, however, noting the need to wait for a new government, in order to finalize any potential agreement. As in the case of the CEOs of Eni and Enel, the mandate of Alessandro Profumo will also expire next year “
Telecom: the TIM dossier with Meloni
“Fratelli di Italia asked for the re-nationalization of the group as part of a plan to create a single broadband network in Italy, through the combination of TIM’s fixed network with that of Open Fiber ”.
Banca Akros reminds that “This objective clashes with that of TIM’s CEO Pietro Labriola, who aims to sell the TIM network to CDP (Cassa Depositi e Prestiti) to focus on services”. About that, FDI welcomed CDP’s decision to wait for the result of the elections before submitting its non-binding offer for TIM’s network ”.
This is how Giorgia Meloni expressed herself in an interview with Radio 24, in the days preceding the Italian political elections:
Speaking of the theme of the single network, Meloni remarked how it is “The network should be under the control of the State given that the asset is strategic and relevant to national security” . adding to see with favor “the creation of a single network, not vertically integrated, which serves all retail operators “.
TIM falls again: -8% after Barclays downgrade which cites Meloni risk for tlc projects
Piano Tim, Giorgia Meloni has no doubts: “The network must be of the State”. For analysts, the dossier will proceed after voting