Source: Donghai Futures Author: Donghai Futures
The text of the research report
【Glass】
background analysis:Glass futures prices were weak on Tuesday, with the 01 contract closing at 1,480 yuan/ton in night trading, and the 05 contract closing at 1,503 yuan/ton in night trading. The central bank left the one-year and five-year loan market quoted rates (LPRs) unchanged at 3.65% and 4.3%, respectively.
On the demand side, the deep processing market is tepid. Because the terminal funding problem has not improved significantly, new orders are more cautious, and the order situation in some regions is slightly weaker than in August.
On the supply side, the operating rate of float industry enterprises was 83.33%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.82%. The transactions in the Shahe market in North China were normal, and the price of slabs was mainly stable. The overall production and sales of the East China market are still weak, and only a few manufacturers can achieve a balance or above in production and sales.
The price of the central China market remained stable, the overall production and sales were relatively good, and the inventory was slightly reduced. The production and sales of some manufacturers in the South China market can be above the balance, and some are around 70-90%, and the market price is relatively flexible. According to Longzhong Information, the national average price was 1,656 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous month.
The mainstream price in North China is 1620 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in East China is 1730 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Central China is 1580 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in South China is 1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Northeast China is 1660 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Southwest China is 1640 yuan / ton / ton; the mainstream price in the northwest region is 1610 yuan / ton.
Core logic:The main contracts fluctuate at the lower edge of the production cost, the basis is large, and the valuation has certain advantages. The glass inventory is under great pressure. Although the demand is favorable, it has weakened significantly year-on-year, and the production profit is negative. The market outlook may need to reduce the supply side to drive the price rebalancing.
Operation suggestion:Short-term rallies test empty.
Risk factors:The cold repair of float glass exceeded expectations, and the performance of real estate demand exceeded expectations.
【soda ash】
background analysis:The price of soda ash futures fluctuated on Tuesday. The 01 contract closed at 2,301 yuan/ton in night trading, and the 05 contract closed at 2,034 yuan/ton in night trading.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has accelerated the revision and improvement of the photovoltaic standard system and promoted the recycling of photovoltaic modules.
On the demand side, the downstream demand for light soda ash is acceptable, and it can be purchased as needed; the downstream demand for heavy soda ash is stable, and it is just necessary to get the goods to maintain a certain inventory.
On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic soda ash is 82.73%. Anhui Debang plant was shut down for maintenance on September 20, and it is expected to last for about 10 days. Enterprise orders are supported, shipments are relatively smooth, and the supply of goods in some areas is tight. In terms of market transactions, some traders take a wait-and-see attitude towards the market and purchase in moderation.
According to Longzhong Information, the mainstream price of heavy alkali in Northeast China is 2850 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of heavy alkali in North China is 2800 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of heavy alkali in East China is 2800 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of heavy alkali in central China is 2800 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of heavy alkali in the region is 2950 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of heavy alkali in southwest China is 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of heavy alkali in northwest area is 2470 yuan/ton.
Core logic:The profit of float glass production has reached a low level, the price of soda ash has obviously peaked, and the price needs to be driven by the price of glass. The market outlook needs to pay attention to the terminal real estate situation. If the real estate side boost is limited, the probability of cold repair on the float glass supply side will increase, which will be bad for the demand for heavy caustic soda. The current high profit of soda ash may be difficult to maintain.
Operation suggestion:Weak shock thinking to look at.
Risk factors:The cold repair of float glass exceeded expectations, and the production of photovoltaic glass fell short of expectations.
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