Home » Gold and silver rise, and quick squeeze on US copper helps commodities proceed to rise_Economy_Macro Channel Home_Financial Network-CAIJING.COM.CN

Gold and silver rise, and quick squeeze on US copper helps commodities proceed to rise_Economy_Macro Channel Home_Financial Network-CAIJING.COM.CN

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Gold and silver rise, and quick squeeze on US copper helps commodities proceed to rise_Economy_Macro Channel Home_Financial Network-CAIJING.COM.CN

Securities Times reporter Wei Shuguang

After a quick squeeze in copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), through the Asian buying and selling session on May 20, gold, silver, and copper costs continued to report highs. Spot gold neared $2,450 per ounce, one other report excessive. Domestic silver futures rose 8%, hitting a each day excessive, whereas silver spot costs rose 8.33%.

It’s not simply copper and treasured metals that rose alarmingly On the twentieth, home commodity futures noticed common beneficial properties in Soda ash, manganese silicon rose greater than 6%, and liquid gasoline, Shanghai nickel, and so forth. In the inventory market, treasured metals, industrial metals, minor metals and different sectors led beneficial properties, driving the coal sector, oil, transportation, and different inventory cycles.

In response, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (known as the Shanghai Gold Exchange) issued a discover to warn of the dangers, and supplied ensures and extensions of many gold and silver contracts. Currently, within the worldwide market, hedge fund bulls proceed to extend their positions, particularly within the US copper market as a gold cycle.

Confirmation and extension of the SGE board

On May 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a market threat administration discover, reminding member items to extend their consciousness of threat prevention, make detailed emergency plans, and remind buyers to do an excellent job in threat prevention, rational management positions, and make investments appropriately applicable. The Shanghai Futures Exchange requires that from the closing and clearing interval on May 21, 2024 (Tuesday), the margin ratio for spot contracts reminiscent of gold (T+D) might be adjusted from 9% to 10%, in addition to the worth restrict. might be adjusted from 8% to 9%.

On the identical day, within the native market, the worth of gold (T+D) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 574 yuan/gram, up 2.53%, whereas the worth of silver (T+D) closed at 8,229 yuan/kg, up by 8.33%. In the futures market, the gold futures contract closed at 578.84 yuan/gram, up 2.81% and the principle silver contract hit the each day restrict, up 8%, at 8,211 yuan/kg. The worth of worldwide copper futures on the Shanghai Energy Trading Center as soon as hit a each day restrict of 79,670 yuan/ton, marking the best worth because the itemizing of worldwide copper futures in 2020.

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At the identical time, through the Asia-Pacific buying and selling session of the worldwide commodity futures market, COMEX gold futures, COMEX silver futures, and COMEX copper futures continued to rise, all setting information. In addition, worldwide spot gold was near US$2,450/ounce, once more reaching a report excessive;

Encouraged by the aforementioned costs, within the A-share market on the twentieth, treasured metals, industrial metals, minor metals, and different sectors collectively rose. Zijin Mining rose 3.67%, its share worth reached a report excessive through the session, and its newest market worth was 512.6 billion yuan. Sichuan Gold, Yuguang Gold and Lead, Northern Copper, and different non-metal shares have hit each day highs, whereas Hong Kong’s China Silver Group inventory rose greater than 50%.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to gold shares and non-metal shares additionally carried out strongly. Among them, the gold ETF Huaxia (518850), which tracks the spot worth of gold on the Shanghai Financial Exchange, rose 2.45%, whereas the gold inventory ETF (159562), which tracks the CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry. The Stock Index, up 6.25%, leads the checklist of ETF development The cumulative enhance through the yr exceeded 50%.

U.S. copper quick squeeze drives surge of commodity surge

“Domestic and international funds are extra centered on funding alternatives in useful resource merchandise represented by copper Guosen Futures non-metal analyst Gu Fengda mentioned this yr, rising useful resource merchandise represented by gold and non-ferrous metals have brought about commodity costs to rebound.” . This has one thing to do with the backdrop of the home and international macroeconomic surroundings, the surroundings of the nation, the expectation of a interval of excessive demand, and the nice themes of betting large cash on worldwide strategic companies.

In the worldwide market, hedge fund bulls proceed to extend their SPDR gold ETF positions and lengthy COMEX non-traded positions elevated considerably, which additionally pushed gold costs into a brand new spherical of beneficial properties. As of May 17, the SPDR Gold ETF, the world‘s largest gold exchange-traded fund, was at 838.54 tons, up 5.18 tons or 0.62% from the earlier buying and selling day, and up 6.62 tons that week. .

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According to the most recent data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), within the week of May 14, the full positions of speculators in COMEX gold elevated by 9,811 heaps to 172,942. COMEX silver speculators’ lengthy positions rose by 6,707 heaps to 41,621. COMEX copper speculators elevated their lengthy positions by 6,819 heaps to 72,785.

Liu Shiyao, an analyst at Zijin Tianfeng Futures Company, believes that the present new rise in market costs will not be an accident due to the disproportionate debt of the United States and the devaluation of the greenback in different nations. The idea of inflation continues to dominate the present market.

In addition, the U.S. copper quick squeeze can be driving market sentiment. A latest report from Everbright Futures believes that the compression occasion in COMEX copper futures has allowed the market to see the depressed facet of US copper provide, and traditionally low costs have been utilized by bulls. To resolve the issue, we have to tear down the east wall to make the west wall and take away the world‘s copper that may be delivered to COMEX. This will take time. Meanwhile, COMEX copper futures positions are nonetheless at excessive ranges, so there could also be extra fermentation. Before a key turning level occasion is seen, the course could also be up.

Property

Or enter a brand new cycle

On May 20, dwelling fairness futures closed with modest beneficial properties. Among them, soda ash and manganese silicon rose greater than 6%, liquid gasoline, Shanghai nickel, and so forth. elevated by greater than 4%, styrene, alumina, and so forth. rose greater than 3%, Shanghai gold, PVC, and so forth. elevated greater than 2%, and palm oil, rubber, and so forth. elevated greater than 1%, cotton yarn, cotton, and so forth. Only a couple of varieties like eggs and peanuts fell.

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Currently, world commodity costs have risen to their highest stage in 13 months. The Bloomberg Commodities Spot Index, which tracks 24 power, metals, and agricultural commodities, has gained 9% up to now this yr, pushed by world demand and provide disruptions. Among them, copper costs elevated by 31% and oil costs elevated by 11%.

A common enhance in commodity costs brought about the inventory market to rise above the metal sector, in addition to coal, oil, transport, agriculture, and different cyclical inventory sectors. According to Flush iFind statistics, amongst Shenwan’s secondary sectors, oil companies engineering elevated by 4.03%, coal mining elevated by 3.51%, and breeding business elevated by 3.27%.

Ye Peipei, head of the useful resource merchandise analysis workforce and supervisor of the China-Europe Fund, lately mentioned that we’re presently within the section of an excellent commodity cycle. Over the previous 60 years, the market has skilled 2.5 main product cycles. The first spherical, from the Sixties to the Nineteen Seventies, coincided with industrialization within the United States. The second spherical was from 2002 to 2012, which coincided with China’s industrialization and urbanization. From the start of 2020 to the third wave of the present commodity cycle, the market has some variations in some areas of the present cycle, however funding alternatives additionally come up from variations in expectations.

CITIC Construction Investment’s newest analysis report mentioned the Fed’s rate of interest minimize cycle is about to start, the weak US greenback is predicted to advertise the “monetary qualities” of non-ferrous metals, and useful resource merchandise with restricted availability are anticipated to develop. Currently, home and international demand is stabilizing, driving the expansion of non-metallic commodity consumption, and the worldwide inexperienced power transition is underway, which is predicted to begin a brand new cycle of demand for sure commodities.

(Editor: Wen Jing)

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