Gustav Gressel, senior policy fellow of the European Council of Foreign Relations and expert on military strategy and missile proliferation of Russia and Eastern Europe. The message sent by the US to the EU is clear: Russia could invade Ukraine. Is there a potential for escalation, a real risk of invasion?
“Unfortunately. Russia has gone beyond even what was agreed in the Minsk ceasefire and thinks the West is weak and in decline. He thinks that the United States has all their attention focused on China, and that they look more to the question of Taiwan than to Ukraine. So it would be a good time to “settle” the Ukraine question once and for all for them. “
How many troops has Russia deployed at the gates of Europe, in which strategic points and why?
“First, there are the forces permanently deployed in the western and southern military districts. The Western Military District would have the task, once in action, of taking the Baltic States and Poland, the Southern Military District instead of taking Ukraine, Moldova, and then heading to the Balkan Peninsula. From the existing forces in these military districts, Russia has 45 to 50 battalion-level tactical groups in the western military district and 30 in the southern military district, which would be immediately ready to fight. However, it may now have increased the readiness to deploy of some units, as well as have deployed additional formations from Siberia. The Western Military District, for example, is reinforced by the 41st Siberian Army. And there are other formations that are redeploying from the Far East, including the 90th Guard Armored Division. Now the Russians are trying to hide their military alignments better than in the spring of this year, which is not a good sign. It is very difficult to establish an exact number of troops they have deployed, but it is substantial. And it’s not just about Ukraine: Russia is also moving more troops to increase its offensive capabilities across Belarus. The fact that NATO has difficulty in finding 30 battalions ready to fight within 30 days in Europe has certainly encouraged them ”.
Why has the war in Ukraine been strategic for Moscow so far?
«Putin wants to reintegrate Ukraine into the Russian empire. If necessary by force. It downsized the goal of the war because, in the Russian interpretation of the Minsk Protocol, Ukraine in Minsk welcomed a restructuring of its internal political decision-making processes, involving Russia by proxy through the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. Regardless, Moscow believed Ukrainian Prime Minister Zelensky was ready to subscribe to the Russian vision, which he did not do. Russia also misunderstood Biden, thinking he would leave Ukraine quickly, an impression reinforced by Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland’s recent visit to Moscow. Now he wants to force Ukraine to accept the Minsk agreements on Russian terms, otherwise he risks war. There is a serious feeling in Moscow that a war should be waged if Ukraine does not comply. And many in Moscow still delude themselves that the Ukrainians will accept Russian rule. I was quite surprised recently to read articles in the Russian military press such as “Ukraine is not Russia”. As if the military were trying to dissuade politicians from engaging them in such a war. It’s quite surreal. “
Are there other regions in danger (Georgia, Armenia just out of a dramatic war)?
“Well, Georgia appears to have successfully returned to Moscow’s orbit. But the situation is actually worse than that. Russia wants to return to the European order of 1939. Putin’s obsession with rehabilitating the Hitler-Stalin pact is not just a matter of Russian patriotism, or of rehabilitating Stalin. The entire legal doctrine on which the pact is built, the theory that large spaces are used, developed by Carl Schmitt in 1941 (to give stability to international relations and guarantee peace, ed.) Is what Putin wants to rehabilitate. This, if carried out, would have rather serious consequences for the whole of Europe ”.
The United States responded to the Russian threat by sailing warships in the Black Sea near Russian waters. Is Russia bluffing or does it represent a real risk for Europe too?
“No, unfortunately it is a real threat. I am concerned about the ease with which we forget our lessons. In the spring, the United States responded to the surge in Russian troops by deploying two flying groups of nuclear-capable aircraft in Poland. Officially these were exercises, but the Russians of course know what function the “flocks” of Lakenheath, in the United Kingdom, and Spangdahlem, in Germany have. On April 19 and 20 and April 22 respectively, Russian general Valerij Gerasimov, chief of staff of the Kremlin armed forces, canceled the Russian surprise exercises. In any case, for the situation to calm down it is necessary to convince Moscow that any further move will have consequences for them and that these consequences will outweigh the advantages they could obtain ».
This Russian “hybrid war”, as defined by some analysts, is also fought with the use of migrants as human weapons on the Belarusian border and with the tug-of-war over the Russian gas pumped into Europe through Nord Stream 2. Moscow can use its military options to threaten and influence the internal debates of the countries it targets?
“Yes, it greatly influences internal debates with force and threats. Although on the transformation of migrants into human weapons, I still think that it is mainly the Belarusian leader Lukashenko who is leading this process. Moscow can of course exploit the situation: if Belarus “wins” in the stalemate with the EU, Brussels will pay Moscow’s bills to keep Belarus alive (ie through gas Putin will keep the Belarusian economy afloat, ed). If the EU wins, Lukashenko is further isolated and can be pushed to make concessions on deeper integration into the Union. Not all developments that favor Putin are actively created by him. For example, there is a good chance that Poland will react inhumanly against migrants, and this would further isolate Warsaw in the EU. For Moscow, Warsaw is one of the most “russophobic” capitals, so isolating it is a nice side effect of any crisis in favor of Putin, but not provoked by him ».
What weapons does Europe have to fight back? Is it able to dissuade Russia from using military force? Would we be safer if we developed a common defense?
«Yes, greater preparation in this field would be essential. Russia uses military force as a tool because it thinks it has the best competitive advantage in this area, and because it thinks Europeans will back down at any risk. To counter this Russian tactic it would not be necessary to buy new weapons, but to increase the military readiness of the EU, interoperability (having weapons fully compatible with each other), training and communication, in order to convince Russia that there is nothing to be gained from all of this. I also think that Russia will return to the Vienna Document (to strengthen confidence, security and disarmament in Europe) and other confidence-building measures once it sees that there is some military capability in Europe. For now, the lack of clarity of our military policy is a one-sided advantage for them ».
What are Moscow’s goals? Destabilize Europe? Bring back a part of the lands of the former USSR under its aegis with the military threat to show that it is powerful, aggressive and daring?
«First of all it is a question of reclaiming territories which it perceives as” unjustifiably lost “after the dissolution of the USSR. It does not take into account the fact that Ukrainians actually want independence and have no nostalgia for the USSR. But there are several problems. First, they should use excessive force to bring Ukraine back under control. There would be an insurrection in Ukraine. Second point, Russian imperial claims are hardly limited to a conquered territory that eventually satisfies them. Just look at Germany about 80 years ago: the aim was “only” Austria, then “only” the poor Sudeten Germans (all the Germans who lived along the border areas of the present Czech Republic, and in the so-called Sprachinseln, German linguistic islands, or some inland areas of Bohemia and Moravia with a strong German-speaking presence), then, then, then … If we legitimize those instruments of the 1930s, we should not be surprised by the escalation. Russia seeks control of Belarus and Ukraine in order to preemptively “defend” itself from NATO, but who can guarantee us that it will not try to “preemptively defend” Belarus and Ukraine once it fully controls them? Look what happens on the Belarusian border ».