[EpochTimesSeptember292021](Epoch Times reporter Zhao Fenghua comprehensive report) The spread of electricity shortage in mainland China, and the impact of power rationing on the economy and people’s livelihood, aroused the attention of the world. The State Grid Corporation of China held an emergency conference call a few days ago, and for the first time made guaranteeing power supply its most important political task.
According to the State Grid WeChat official account of the State Grid, the State Grid recently held an emergency online conference call. Xin Baoan, the company’s chairman and party secretary, said that in September, “affected by multiple factors”, the domestic power supply and demand situation is facing new challenges and Challenges, ensuring power supply has become the most important and most urgent political task at present.
Previously, on September 28, the State Grid announced on the Internet that some areas of Beijing planned to cut off power from September 28 to October 8. It was a normal line maintenance, and emphasized that Beijing has sufficient power and denied the company’s customer service’s previous response. “Interface News” statement.
Jiemian News called the customer service of State Grid on the 28th to inquire about the reason for Beijing’s planned power outage from September 28 to October 8. The answer was “the price of coal and electricity remains high, resulting in a drop in power from power plants, and the supply and demand situation is tight.” Related reports It has been deleted from the interface news network later on the 28th.
Since September this year, more than a dozen provinces including Liaoning, Jilin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong have “turned off power cuts”, and some areas have experienced power outages without warning. Many industrial enterprises in many places “start three and stop four” or even “start two and stop five” staggered peak power consumption, causing some enterprises to suspend work and production. On the afternoon of September 23, a large area of unwarned power outages in Shenyang, including electricity for residents, caused some roads to be congested due to power outages due to signal lights.
As of the 28th, more than 20 listed companies have issued announcements related to power curtailment and production suspension, including Mona Lisa, Diou Home Furnishing, Chenhua shares and Taoli Bread, among them, Apple and Tesla ( Tesla)’s suppliers’ factories in the mainland are listed.
Expert analysis: the reason behind the electricity shortage is very complicated
Zhao Xiao, the former head of the Macro Strategy Department of the Research Center of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the Mainland China and a professor of economics at the University of Science and Technology Beijing, said in an exclusive interview with Radio Free Asia recently that the suspension of production caused by power rationing has made China’s economy worse.
Professor Zhao Xiao said: “Obviously, this impact is very serious because China’s domestic demand is insufficient now. Since July, the data in August is very bad. Many data are falling in a straight line, which is beyond market participants, analysts, including Government officials were unexpected. Therefore, the overall economic downturn made us very worried. Coupled with the current power cuts, many small and medium-sized enterprises have to be shut down, which is even worse.”
“So we see that various forecasting agencies have successively lowered their forecasts for China’s economic growth this year, and also lowered the economic data for next year. This is based on the further contraction of domestic demand on the supply side represented by power rationing. Yes, the next impact on the fourth quarter and next year.”
The power shortage has hit China’s economy, so why does it happen?
Professor Zhao Xiao analyzed: “The first is that the behavior of officials is becoming more and more politicized. In the past, local governments were driven by interests and their political achievements were also driven by political performance. They are basically evaluated for promotion by political performance. But now they Their behavior is becoming more and more politicized. It does not mean that they do not consider economic interests. They still consider it, but their behavior is becoming more and more politicized, and they are increasingly thinking about how to keep their black hats.”
“In addition, in this round, the prices of upstream products (power plants) have risen very high. If electricity is still generated at the previous price, some departments will feel very disadvantaged. The price of electricity has not risen, but the price of coal has risen. The more power generation, the greater the loss, and I don’t want to generate power anymore. So this involves the interests of certain monopolies. It also involves higher-level considerations.”
“There is also that in negotiations and agreements involving carbon, the CCP wants to make some gestures, or use this as a reason to achieve an international goal or promise to reduce power generation. This is a high-sounding reason. But behind the scenes. What is it? Behind it is the interests of certain departments. Obviously, the local government cannot control it. It is the monopoly department that has the final say. And the monopoly department has a higher authority over them.”
Professor Zhao Xiao said that in the entire large-scale government behavior, it used to be very simple, with one center and two basic points, and one center is to develop the economy, but now it is obviously not. There are many factors to consider, including international politics, gaming with a big country like the United States, and the slogan of “giving up illusions and preparing to fight.”
Professor Zhao Xiao said: “Under these factors, there are also considerations of the international economic structure, but this is not the only consideration. For example, if the relationship with Australia is only for economic reasons, of course, it is necessary to import Australian coal. Australia has more coal. Yes, it’s cheap and good. It must be a win-win situation. However, due to other factors, this will not be considered, and your coal will not be imported. If you do not import your coal, the price of coal will rise as a result, and the entire economy will be Changes have taken place. Such a pattern will be more complicated in the future.”
“In the past few days, everyone has been concerned about Meng Wanzhou’s affairs. In fact, this matter is not a major issue. The bigger issue is the formation of the four-nation mechanism. On September 24, we saw that outside the United Nations system, the first after the Cold War A military alliance, a four-nation mechanism is being formed. The United States, Japan, India, and Australia held a four-party dialogue at the White House. In this case, the economic relationship between China and Australia will become more complicated in the future.”
Bloomberg said that China’s thermal coal futures prices have repeatedly hit record highs in the past month. The reason is that while concerns about coal mine safety and pollution limit local production, the CCP continues to ban the import of thermal coal from Australia, its largest supplier. China’s deteriorating power contraction is partly caused by China (the CCP) itself, because Xi Jinping is trying to ensure that the Beijing Winter Olympics in February next year can see the blue sky, and to show the international community that he is serious about decarbonizing the economy.
Editor in charge: Gao Jing #
.