Summary
[Guohai Securities: There are structural opportunities in the market, focusing on three configuration clues]Looking forward to April, we believe that the market has entered the bottom-grinding stage after the bottom of the policy is confirmed, and there are structural opportunities before the credit recovery and the official confirmation of the bottom of the economy. Against the backdrop of a significant contraction in the valuation of the stock market in the first quarter, the bottom-grinding stage from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market is deduced. The performance of listed companies faced downward pressure in the second quarter, valuation changes were affected by the tightening of the Federal Reserve, and subsequent valuation expansion stemmed from credit recovery and economic confirmation of the bottom. Structural opportunities lie in three clues: steady growth, post-cycle and boom growth segments.
The second stage of steady growth.For a period of time in the future, the market will be in a grinding stage between the bottom of the policy and the bottom of the market. Under the background of restricted overseas liquidity and increased downward pressure on the economy, the stable growth sector is the direction of least resistance. At present, the bottom of the domestic economy has not yet arrived. The downturn in the real estate market and the impact of the epidemic on consumption and services are the main factors that hinder the current economy. Steady growth has entered the second stage, with limited space for infrastructure to continue to rise, real estate will be significantly strengthened, and consumption and services will also be repaired after the partial epidemic dissipates, but we need to pay attention to the downside risks of exports and manufacturing.Different from the rate hike cycle of 2015-2018, this round of Fed rate hike cycle is “fast before and slow”, and the climax of tightening will appear in the second quarter, and the second quarter of U.S. debtinterest rateThere is still room for upside, and 2.8% is the next key point. It is necessary to be alert to the negative impact brought by the inversion of the Sino-US interest rate differential. From the current point of view, the operating space of price-based tools has indeed faced multiple constraints, and quantitative tools have indeed faced multiple constraints. It will become an important starting point for the dominant structural easing, and the effective credit easing needs to see a significant recovery in the real estate and other carriers. After the policy is confirmed, the follow-up will focus on the economic situation,currencyFiscal policy, real estate and other fields, and structural policies focus on corporate bailouts and stabilizing expectations under the spotlight epidemic, reducing the unnecessary impact of non-economic factors on the market.Before the credit continues to recover and the economic bottom is officially confirmed, there are structural opportunities in the market. We will focus on three configuration clues. In terms of cost performance, the sectors related to stable growth are the best, followed by the post-economic cycle, and the economic growth game is more difficult. The preferred industry in AprilBankagriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology.
The main idea of industry allocation: Looking forward to April, we believe that the market has entered the bottom grinding stage after the bottom of the policy is confirmed, and there are structural opportunities before the credit recovery and the official confirmation of the bottom of the economy.。Against the backdrop of a significant contraction in the valuation of the stock market in the first quarter, the bottom-grinding stage from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market is deduced.Listed companyperformanceFacing downward pressure in the second quarter, valuation changes were affected by Fed tightening, and subsequent valuation expansion stemmed from credit recovery and economic confirmation of the bottom. Structural opportunities lie in three clues: steady growth, post-cycle and boom growth segments.Specifically, 1) Steady growth is the direction of least resistance under the continuous influence of the epidemic. The sector focuses on real estate and infrastructure with strong expectations of policy margin relaxation, as well as those benefiting from the stabilization of the real estate chain.Bank2) Late-cycle varieties that lag behind the changes in the economic cycle and can reflect inflation, including coal, petroleum, petrochemical, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc.; 3) In the boom growth sector, focus on high boom segments catalyzed by strong industrial cycles , such as photovoltaics,medical serviceAmong them, the overall performance of the pharmaceutical and biological sector has lagged behind in the past year, and the valuation is currently at the absolute bottom. Clear, oversold rebound has taken shape. Preferred industry in AprilBankagriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology.
risk warning:Liquidity tightened more than expected, the economy stalled and declined, Sino-US frictions intensified, the epidemic worsened than expected, and the future performance of the relevant target companies was uncertain.
(Article Source:Guohai Securities）