Stock index: technical callback, stock index temporarily wait and see;
On the technical level, after the Spring Festival, the stock market opened high and moved low, with heavy volume and long Yang. After a positive line, there were three consecutive negatives, and the signal of the short-term peak of the market was more obvious. From the perspective of weight performance, the recent correction of the heavy weight liquor sector has been significant, and the brokerages stimulated by the positive registration system are not obvious, and the consumer sector has turned violent. Policies promote economic recovery, the stock market is basically facing a positive trend, and the differences in sentiment are increasing. The stock index is temporarily on the sidelines.
National debt: interest rates fluctuate at low levels, national debt wait and see;
With the continuous relaxation of real estate policies, the new interest rate has dropped significantly, forming a large difference with the stock interest rate, and the “prepayment of loans” has increased significantly, which will further guide the decline of the real interest rate. At the consumption level, some banks have significantly lowered their consumer loan interest rates, and money demand has picked up in the short term. At the inter-bank level, the recovery of money demand has led to a rise in inter-bank interest rates, and short-term fluctuations in national debt are relatively large, but they are still fluctuating at a low level and continue to wait and see.
Beans: The weather in Argentina improved, and the US soybeans fell from high levels;
CBOT soybean futures closed down moderately on Monday, with the benchmark period closing down about 0.7%. A cold air will affect Argentina again this weekend, which will bring rain. The drought in Argentina eased slightly. Concerns about Chinese demand loom large. The March contract closed down 10.75 cents at 1521.25 cents per bushel. Affected by this, the continuous meal market opened high and went low at night, and the long positions were closed and the futures price decreased. The domestic soybean meal spot was relatively strong, but the continuous meal market was fluctuated by multiple factors such as US soybeans, basis difference, and the increase in the arrival of forward soybeans to Hong Kong. Repeatedly, maintain the operation idea of range shock, short-term band operation is appropriate.
Oils: U.S. soybean oil closed up due to oil meal arbitrage;
CBOT soybean oil futures closed up on Monday, of which the benchmark period closed up about 0.42%, which was mainly boosted by the strengthening of international crude oil futures. The active arbitrage of buying soybean oil and selling soybean meal boosted the price of soybean oil. The March contract closed 0.25 cents higher at 59.31 cents per pound. Affected by this, even soybean oil opened higher and moved lower, and the selling pressure on the rebound was prominent.
The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was closed on Monday for a public holiday. Indonesia will suspend some palm oil export permits on Monday afternoon, leaving about a third of its palm oil export quota still available and the rest after May 1. This will greatly boost the export of horse palm oil. Affected by this, even palm oil closed down within a narrow range at the previous day’s high.
ICE oil canola futures closed modestly higher on Monday, with the benchmark period closing about 0.23% higher, following gains in the Chicago soybean oil market. The March period closed about 1.90 Canadian dollars higher at 833.50 Canadian dollars per ton. In contrast, Zheng vegetable oil fell slightly following other oils. At present, international oils and fats fluctuate violently, and the Indonesian government has made policy changes again. The horse palm oil market may be boosted. The oil and fats in the internal market fluctuate between demand and cost, and the market is still bottoming out repeatedly. Short-term operation, fast in and fast out.
Hog: pig-to-grain ratio enters the first-level warning range, pay attention to policy expectations;
Hog futures rebounded on Monday, and the main LH2303 contract was temporarily quoted at 14,345 yuan, an increase of 1.34% from the settlement price of the previous day. In terms of spot goods, according to Huiyi.com, the quotation in Henan is 14 yuan/kg-14.5 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.2 yuan/kg from yesterday; the quotation in Shandong is 14.3 yuan/kg-14.9 yuan/kg, which is the same as yesterday. Spots rebounded over the weekend, as retail investors were generally less active in trading, making it difficult to trade at low prices, thus supporting the rise in back-end contracts. In the future, live pigs are currently in the off-season after the festival, and the average weight from slaughter is still high, which means that the big pigs have not yet been digested, and the fundamentals lack upward driving factors, but the price of pigs has fallen to a low level, and the price ratio of pigs and grains has entered a level Level early warning range, policy purchase and storage is about to be introduced, and the price of pigs may enter a stage of complete shocks. Operationally, wait and see from the near end. The far month is mainly buying on dips.
Corn: loose supply and demand, corn lower;
The DCE corn futures fluctuated Monday night, with the main March contract falling 0.5% to 2,794 yuan for the time being. In terms of spot goods, according to Huiyi.com, the second-class purchase of Beigang corn is 2,820-2,830 yuan/ton, a price reduction of 10-15 yuan from last Friday, and Guangdong Shekou New Grain Bulk Ship is 2,980-3,000 yuan/ton, a price reduction of 20 yuan from last Friday. , The price of first-grade corn in containers is within 3050 yuan/ton, the mainstream purchase of Heilongjiang deep-processing new corn is 2600-2700 yuan/ton, the mainstream purchase of Jilin deep-processing corn is 2680-2750 yuan/ton, the mainstream purchase of Inner Mongolia corn is 2700-2820 yuan/ton, Liaoning corn The mainstream purchase is 2800-2900 yuan/ton. In the future, the progress of domestic grain sales at the grassroots level is slow, farmers have a lot of surplus grain, and the pressure to go public in the spring still exists, while the profits of downstream breeding and deep processing enterprises are not good, and the short-term supply and demand are weak. The start of the month puts additional pressure on the market. Operationally, short-term bearish operation.
Apple: Poor performance in the wholesale market, Apple Masukura down;
Apple futures fell sharply on Monday. The main contract AP2305 fluctuated downward, closing at 8777, down 1.34% from the previous trading day, increasing positions by 5,000 lots, and holding 200,000 lots. At present, the overall inventory is high, and downstream consumption is the focus of attention. Recently, the wholesale market has performed poorly, and the sales volume has also declined due to the decrease in arrivals. Pay attention to the consumption situation in the later period. If there is no improvement, Apple may rebound or be blocked. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being.
Fuel oil: Crude oil rebounded, fuel oil shocks;
On Monday night, international crude oil rebounded and fuel oil fluctuated. In the domestic market, after the Spring Festival, the spot price of bunker oil continued to pick up, the profits of refineries improved, and the supply was relatively loose. However, around the Spring Festival, some shipping companies went on vacation, and the market expectations were slowly fulfilled; domestic demand for refined oil products was good during the Spring Festival, and travel The recovery will drive the profit of secondary processing of heavy oil, and the previous decline may gradually recover. In the international market, under the background of EU restrictions on Russian energy products, Russian fuel oil flows to the Asia-Pacific market, but fuel oil stocks in Singapore remain low. Recently, major shipping indexes such as BDI have been sluggish, and the cooling of the shipping industry has suppressed the overall demand for fuel oil to a certain extent. Affected by the decline in crude oil, it is recommended that short sellers stay on the sidelines.
Asphalt: Crude oil rebounds, asphalt shocks;
On Monday night, crude oil rebounded and bitumen fluctuated. Recently, in the traditional off-season of asphalt, the domestic asphalt market continues to be weak in both supply and demand, and the demand is slightly insufficient, but the supply continues to be low, and some refineries gradually produce residual oil, resulting in low and fluctuating inventory levels in asphalt refineries. Traders will take goods this winter Motivation is better than last year. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, as of January 25, the operating rate of asphalt refineries nationwide was only 27.89%, and the inventory rate rose slightly to 33%. There was no winter accumulation phenomenon, and the overall inventory level was controllable. It is recommended to operate with concussion thinking.
PTA: short-term continuation adjustment;
TA2305 closed down 0.32% in Monday night trading. After the festival, the downstream has been reworked one after another, and the demand has shown a seasonal rebound. New production capacity of PTA has been put into production one after another, but the maintenance of existing equipment is still not low, the supply remains highly elastic, and social inventories continue to accumulate. On the cost side, PX is tight at this stage, and the cost support is strong, but there is an expectation of compression in the PXN price difference, and the cost side is greatly affected by crude oil. The market continues to focus on the cost and supply-demand game, paying attention to the trend of oil prices and the landing of demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being.
Polyolefins: a weak callback in the disk;
On Monday night, L2305 closed down 0.80%, and PP2305 closed down 0.71%. The supply is at a high level year-on-year, and there are expectations for the release of incremental production capacity. The downstream is still in the stage of resumption of work. The speed of demand increase is slow, and the actual supply pressure is increasing. Superimposed with the weakening of external crude oil prices, the market mentality tends to be cautious after the festival, and short-term polyolefins are under pressure. Shock callback. In the medium term, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the supply side will continue to maintain a certain degree of flexibility. The demand factor will be the focus of the follow-up game. Under the expectation of the gold, silver and four peak seasons, after the market correction is in place or there are more opportunities for bargain hunting, pay attention to the trend of oil prices and the landing situation of demand . Suggested range shock thinking.
Crude oil: Oil prices remain range-bound in the short term;
On Monday, WTI crude oil rose 1.46% to close at $74.46/barrel, while domestic crude oil SC2303 fell 1.25% to close at 522.7 yuan/barrel at night. Oil producers may have to rethink their output policies as demand recovers in China, the world‘s second-largest oil consumer, IEA Director-General Birol said on Sunday. Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of the main export crude oil supplied to Asia, and the earthquake in Turkey brought concerns about crude oil transportation. On the technical side, WTI oil prices will maintain a range of 70-83 US dollars / barrel in the short term, and SC2303 will maintain a range of 500-580 yuan / barrel. Suggestions for operation: operate with a range of shocks.
Rubber: Downstream demand is gradually recovering, and there is limited room for rubber prices to fall;
At night, Hujiao RU2305 fell 0.39% to close at 12,635 yuan/ton. Although the output of new rubber on the supply side has decreased due to the impact of the low-production season, the domestic social pool is high and the supply pressure is relatively high; on the demand side, most domestic tire manufacturers have resumed normal production. With the release of replenishment demand after the year, the overall The shipment performance is relatively satisfactory. On the technical side, the price of rubber RU2305 remains volatile in the short term, and we should pay attention to the support around 12500 below. Suggestions for operation: operate with oscillating thinking.
Rebar: The night market fell back and waited and watched;
On Tuesday night, the snail fell slightly by 0.74% to 4007 yuan/ton. From the perspective of supply and demand, according to Mysteel data, the output of rebar last week was 2.35 million tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous month; the apparent consumption was 590,000 tons, a slight increase of 16,000 tons from the previous month. The current market demand is still weak, waiting for the actual downstream to resume work. Inventory continued to accumulate to 11.13 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons from the previous month. The market expects demand to pick up, and investors are advised to wait and see for the time being.
Ferroalloy: Weak supply and demand, sell short on rallies;
Manganese and Silicon: Black commodity futures fell back on Monday night. The enthusiasm for manganese and silicon production is high. (2.2) Mysteel statistics of 121 independent silicomanganese enterprise samples across the country: the operating rate (capacity utilization rate) is 61.26% nationwide, an increase of 1.13% from last week; the average daily output is 29,281 tons, an increase of 492 tons. The supply and demand of manganese and silicon weakened, and the shipment of Gabon mines resumed. It is recommended to sell mainly in light positions.
?? Ferrosilicon: Black commodity futures fell back on Monday night. The profit of ferrosilicon production is relatively considerable, and most manufacturers in the main production areas maintain a high level of operation. (2.3) Mysteel counted 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises across the country: the operating rate (capacity utilization rate) was 45.21% nationwide, an increase of 2.96% over the previous period; the average daily output was 17,058 tons, an increase of 580 tons over the previous period. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon is gradually weakening, and it is recommended to sell short in light positions.
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