Zhitong Finance APP learned that Guosheng Securities releasedresearch reportTo maintainChina Resources Beer(00291) “Buy” rating, clear high-end strategy, optimistic about its structural upgradePerformanceRelease, the target price is 78 Hong Kong dollars, corresponding to 22 years of 24xEV/EBITDA.
event:In the first half of the year, the company’s revenue was 19.63 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8%; EBIT increased by 111.9% to 5.91 billion yuan;Net profit4.29 billion yuan, an increase of 106.4%. Earlier profit alertannouncementThe growth rate is not less than 100%.
The increase mainly comes from: the sale of land parcel income is about 1.76 billion yuan (about 1.3 billion yuan after tax), and the increase in sales and ASP has brought about an increase in gross profit. Excluding the gains from land transfers, the net profit attributable to the parent in the first half of the year would be approximately 2.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44%.
The main points of Guosheng Securities are as follows:
The second-high and above sales are eye-catching, and the product structure has been significantly upgraded.
China Resources BeerThe sales volume in the first half of the year was 6.337 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Among them, the second highest and above sales reached 1 million kiloliters, the growth rate reached 50.9%, and the sales accounted for 15.8%. Heineken and Mars Green achieved mid-double-digit growth, SuperX doubled, and structural upgrades continued to accelerate. Product structure upgrades promoted the price of wine per ton in the first half of the year, which increased by 7.5% year-on-year to RMB 3,098. The company continues to promote the “4+4” high-end combination, while exploring diversification. In the first half of the year, it launched ultra-high-end product “Li”, high-end product “Black Lion Fruit Beer”, carbonated beverage “Small Beer Steam” and international brand “Hongjue”, etc. .It is expected that with SuperX, Chunsheng, Heineken and other high-endMain forceWith the rapid development of the brand and the help of new products such as Black Lion, Mars Green, Heineken Iron King Kong, and Laoxue, the second-highest and above sales volume is expected to maintain rapid growth and continue to drive the overall structural upgrade.
Cost pressure is expected to prompt price increases, and high-end and efficiency improvements will drive profit release.
The continuous increase in the prices of beer raw materials and packaging materials puts pressure on the cost side. In the first half of the year, the cost per ton increased by 4% year-on-year.However, the cost reduction brought about by structural optimization and organizational reengineering in the first half of theinterest rateIt was 42.3%, an increase of 1.9 pct year-on-year, and gross profit per ton increased by 12.6% year-on-year. Faced with rising packaging materials and raw material prices,China Resources BeerMeasures such as repairing product prices have been implemented in some areas, and it is expected that major varieties will be raised nationwide in the second half of the year.
In terms of capacity optimization, two factories were closed in the first half of the year, fixed assets were impaired by 200 million yuan, and employee compensation was 40 million yuan. In the future, it will focus on building new large factories and increasing canning production lines and other efficiency-improving measures. The administrative and other expenses rate was 8.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1 pct. The net administrative expense rate after excluding impairment and employee compensation was reduced by 1.8 pct. High-end structural upgrades and efficiency improvements will continue to drive profit release.
Continue to strengthen brand investment, and the large customer platform will help the layout of high-end channels.
China Resources Beer’s characteristic high-end path is “five points and one line”, including five aspects: sales force, product portfolio, major customers, channel marketing, and commanding heights. In terms of cost placement strategy, we insisted on increasing brand promotion and channel marketing, and lean channel and terminal expenses. The company’s sales expenses in the first half of the year were 3.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%.
On the channel side, a high-end major customer platform was officially launched in July, which is managed by Huading Club, Huazun Club, and Huajue Club, binding and empowering high-quality distributors, and strengthening the layout of high-end channels; channel marketing requires “doing “Elite”, including in-store atmosphere building, consumer interaction and brand communication. On the brand promotion side, SuperX and Mars Green officially announced new spokespersons, leveraging the European Cup and the Champions League to strongly boost Heineken. In August, the SuperX titled “This Is Hip-hop” was launched in the fourth quarter, and the popularity flowed out of the circle. .
Investment Advice:It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent for 21-23 years will be 46.1 billion yuan (including 1.3 billion yuan of land transfer income)/45.3/567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120%/-2%/25%, excluding land transfer income, an increase of 58%/37% /25%.
risk warning:The risk of not meeting the expected epidemic control, the risk of not meeting the expected development of the mid-to-high-end market, the risk of intensified competition in the regional market, and the risk of rising costs and prices of raw materials and packaging materials.
(Source: Zhitong Finance Network)
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