Home Business Guotai Junan: In the fourth quarter, the allocation direction cycle is switched to the direction of low valuation

Guotai Junan: In the fourth quarter, the allocation direction cycle is switched to the direction of low valuation

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  The effectiveness of the current formulation of traditional industry strategies under the research and judgment of a single macro variable has been significantly reduced.Looking forward to 2022, when the market has reached a consensus on the expectations of a “ground-breaking type” of economic characteristics, we believe thatCPIExceeding expectations or contributing to the strongest excess revenue space under mispricing: mass consumption sets the world.


  Looking back on the performance of A-shares in 2021, global risk events and policy shocks are difficult to predict, the policy orientation of China and the United States is different from the pace of economic recovery, and the domestic A-share market has a significant rotation.Year-to-date, it has experienced a style switch from consumption at the beginning of the year→Q2 technology→Q3 cycle→Q4 new energy to technology again. The research and judgment on the direction and inflection point of the current industry allocation strategy is more important than the past.

In recent years, domestic supply-side reforms have fallen behind for a while, and economic growth continues to bottom out under the influence of the current epidemic prevention and control, and it is in the critical transitional stage of bidding farewell to the traditional growth model to innovation-driven transformation + energy structure transformation.Participants in various sectors of the domestic real economy or various institutional investors in the A-share market are facing unprecedented economic changes and disputes over pricing power at the micro transaction level. In the past, comparisons of traditional industries based on macro variables in a single dimension The strategy will be difficult to effectively respond to changes in various factors and scenarios in the economic and market environment.Looking forward to 2022, standing at the new stage and starting point of the recovery of global supply and demand after the epidemic,At the industry configuration level, we pioneered the proposal to provide responsive industry comparison strategy combinations in response to different scenarios and probabilities of economic and price expectations, with a view to contributing higher winning rates and stronger excess returns.

  Allocation direction in the fourth quarter of 2021: the cycle shifts to the direction of low valuation.1) The supply-demand gap is expected to converge, and the cycle is coming to an end; 2) The signal of the turning point of financial real estate has already appeared; 3) Expectations go first, and consumption is on the rise. Highly recommented:Brokerage/Bank; Live pigs/liquor/dairy products/steam zero; new energy.

  Consensus in 2022: The economic volume shrinking scene has become the consensus expectation of the market, and the high-prosperity growth style is dancing under the pattern of wide liquidity.The current market expectations in 2022 have reached a consensus: the economy is facing the dual dilemma of weakening recovery momentum and rising raw material prices, CPI restoration is weak, and corporate profits are flat or even lower than expected. The pattern of wide liquidity is good for high prosperity and high risk preferences. Characteristic technological growth track, and defensive varieties. Industry recommendations: 1) High-prosperity new energy: new energy vehicles/photovoltaic/wind power, etc.; 2) Technological growth and high-end equipment: Yuan universe equipment/semiconductor/Military industry/Mechanical equipment; 3) Stable defense style in the ground-breaking scenario: Required consumption/gold/medicine, etc.

  Seek room for excess returns under market mispricing in 2022: shift from volume contraction to price recovery. Source of mispricing: The mid-stream and downstream competition landscape has been significantly optimized in this round,PPI-CPI transmission strength and CPI upward range may exceed expectations.There are two core logics that have not been paid attention to by the market at present: 1.currencyPolicy is limited and there is still room for fiscal power; 2. The midstream manufacturing sector has been cleared out in this round, and the high concentration is more conducive to the transmission effect on the CPI side; 3. The downstream consumption competition pattern is significantly improved and the superimposed demand side is repaired, which is conducive to Domestic consumer goods price increase trend + profit improvement.

  Industry allocation: “Volume contraction” shifts to the main line of “price recovery”, and mass consumer goods with the strongest logic of low valuation + profit reversal are the core configuration lines, with both high winning rates and high odds.1. Recommendations for mass consumption: 1) Turning point of fundamental reversal: planting/livestock breeding; 2) Improvement of competition pattern: liquor/dairy products/condiments/Textile and ApparelEtc.; 3) Reversal of anticipation in advance: complete vehicles/automobiles/small appliances/white electricity, etc.2. It is recommended that the export boom and domestic substitution be the first to break the game, and the high-end manufacturing will be profitable to repair the resonance after the cost pressure converges. 3. Prosperity growth with high certainty in 2022 will still be the strongest absolute income main line: 1) New energy industry chain, new energy vehicles/green power, which will continue to benefit in the mid-term under the background of energy structure transformation; 2) Rely on technological innovation + domestic substitution Technological manufacturing that contributes to core demand increments. 4. Opportunities for structural reversal of the meso perspective. Focus on recommending the Monarch Strategy’s top 20 gold stock portfolios in 2022.

(Source: Research on Chen Xianshun’s Strategy)


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