Summary
[Guotai Junan Securities: Focus on EPS and low valuations, optimistic about the cycle and consumption]The divergence on stable growth will make sectors that are more sensitive to the economic cycle more likely to exceed expectations, while lower valuations and supply-side (increased concentration) changes will become more beneficial. Investments in the next phase will focus on stocks with low risk characteristics, with an emphasis on cycles and consumption. 1) In terms of profitability, the recent earnings growth of consumer and cyclical industries such as commercial retail, transportation, and coal has been revised up significantly. 2) In the direction of valuation, industrial chains such as infrastructure real estate, textile and clothing, and life services are expected to have a historically low PE valuation. 3) At the micro-transaction level, there is a risk of deterioration in the micro-transaction structure in the direction of semiconductors and new energy vehicles, while the risk of deterioration in the micro-transaction structure in the direction of consumption and infrastructure is low. The specific directions to be optimistic about in the next stage include: 1) Cycle: transportation/coal/chemical industry; 2) Consumption: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (live pigs)/trade and retail/consumer service/liquor. 3) To G terminal or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc.
Divergence on stable growth will make sectors that are more sensitive to the economic cycle more likely to exceed expectations, while lower valuations and supply-side (increased concentration) changes will become more favorable.Investments in the next phase will focus on stocks with low risk characteristics, with an emphasis on cycles and consumption. 1) In terms of profitability, the recent earnings growth of consumer and cyclical industries such as commercial retail, transportation, and coal has been revised up significantly. 2) Valuation direction, infrastructure real estate,Textile and Apparel, life services and other industrial chains are expected to have PE valuations at historically low levels. 3) Micro transaction level,semiconductor. There is a risk of deterioration in the micro transaction structure in the direction of new energy vehicles, and the risk of deterioration in the micro transaction structure in the direction of consumption and infrastructure is low. The specific directions to be optimistic about in the next stage include: 1) Cycle: transportation/coal/chemical industry; 2) Consumption: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (live pigs)/trade and retail/consumer service/liquor. 3) To G terminal or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc.
Combining expected earnings and ROE,BatteryMaterial,non-ferrous metalscommerce and retail, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (live pigs), consumer services and other industries are booming.from the expectednet profitIn terms of growth rate, recent earnings have been significantly revised up in industries including commerce and retail, transportation,Batterymaterials, lithium battery equipment, automobile manufacturing,Batterycomponents, coal, etc. Judging from the expected ROE, the industries with significantly higher ROEs in the near future include battery materials, computer hardware, and automotive electronics. Combining the expected profit growth rate and ROE, the specific industries with a good recent prosperity include commerce, retail, transportation, and battery materials, which are expected to increase their profit growth rate and ROE by a large margin. Under the background that the current fundamentals are not expected to improve significantly, we recommend coal and other industries with inflation and high dividends; recommend public investment directions such as photovoltaics and wind power; recommend pigs and liquor that have reversed difficulties and have certainty of profitability.
Comprehensive PE and PB valuations, those that meet the conditions of high cost performance for valuation include: construction, environmental protection, petrochemicals, machinery and equipment, chemicals, etc.From the perspective of the historical quantiles of expected PE, the expected valuations of industries such as light manufacturing (0.1%), construction (0.1%), and machinery and equipment (0.1%) whose PE quantiles are expected to be at historically low levels in 2022 are relatively low, reflecting higher profits. From the perspective of expected PEG, industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce, retail, real estate, optical communication and other industries with expected PEG less than 1 in 2022 are relatively cost-effective.Judging from the expected PB-ROE, the valuation profit price ratio is higher thanCSI 300Including: mechanical equipment, construction, infrastructure construction, etc. Combining the above three indicators, we are optimistic about the construction, real estate, petrochemical, machinery and equipment, chemical industry, environmental protection, etc.
Comprehensive transaction activity and northbound fundsnet inflowLooking at it, we are optimistic about the infrastructure and consumer sectors with low transaction congestion and continuous net inflow of northbound funds.From the perspective of transaction activity,semiconductor. The high valuation growth track of new energy has declined in the context of high transaction congestion and stronger overseas balance sheet reduction expectations, while the recent transaction activity in the direction of consumption and infrastructure has rebounded.from northCash flowFrom the point of view, there is a risk of deterioration of the micro-transaction structure in the direction of new energy, which has previously experienced a large inflow of northbound funds, while the risk of deterioration of the micro-transaction structure in the infrastructure and consumption direction is low.
(Article Source:Guotai JunansecuritiesResearch)