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Heat pumps, a market with great prospects

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Heat pumps, a market with great prospects

In 2023, with the termination of the superbonus 110there has been a decline in sales of heat pumps for apartments and single-family housesbut an increase for those with a power greater than 17 kW, suitable for the commercial tertiary sector, which did not benefit from the Superbonus 110 incentives. Assoclimathe association of air conditioning system manufacturers, reports that the Italian market is worth over 2.7 billion, with a drop of 11.6% compared to the 2022 boom, while national production reached 1.12 billion euros , an increase of 16.7% compared to 2022.

Positive outlook

Despite the challenges of 2023 due to the end of incentives, the outlook for the heat pump market is positive. The sector expects a robust recovery if Europe is to achieve the objectives of the Green Deal, especially after the adoption by the European Parliament of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, which represents a step forward in the decarbonisation process and has the objective to eliminate fossil fuels in the heating and cooling of buildings by 2040.

The future of home heating and hot water production will move towards electric heat pump systems. However, these systems are more efficient in temperatures that are not excessively cold; at zero degrees, their efficiency is significantly lower than when the outside temperature is around 5 or preferably 10 degrees. Furthermore, the old radiators present in most Italian homes are not effective if the water in circulation does not reach at least 65-70 degrees. Currently, the temperature of heat pumps in use is lower.

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European incentives are arriving

To solve this problem, the EU, which from 2025 will no longer allow incentives for gas boilers, will instead promote incentives for hybrid systems, i.e. a combination of heat pumps and boilers that can be incentivized. However, this does not resolve the issue of radiators. In fact, to heat with a heat pump you need heating coils that must be inserted under the floors but to do this you need to renovate the entire apartment. To give an idea of ​​the costs, an installed gas boiler can cost around 2-3 thousand euros. While the complex system with heat pump and gas boiler costs around 10-15 thousand euros. The advantage is that the system can also be used as an air conditioner during the summer. Furthermore, it can also produce hot water by installing a 300 liter tank. Such a system takes up a lot of space and therefore in city apartments the installation is likely to be complex.

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