Event: Industry Online released data on the production and sales of household air conditioners. In February 2022, the production of household air conditioners was 9.621 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.39%, and the sales were 9.6864 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.59%. Among them, 3,839,700 units were shipped domestically, a year-on-year increase of 4.06%, and 5,846,700 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 15.34%.
Both domestic and foreign sales increased year-on-year in February. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival, the production and sales rhythm of air conditioners in January and February each year changes relatively greatly, and there are short-term fluctuations in single-month data. Looking at the data in February alone, due to the low base last year, both domestic and foreign sales increased year-on-year. Overall, the sales of air conditioners from January to February increased by 0.79%, which was basically the same as the same period last year. The domestic sales performance was relatively stable, down 4.36% year-on-year, and the growth rate was close to that of December last year. The performance of air conditioner retail is also relatively stable. Aowei Cloud’s online and offline sales of air conditioners from January to February changed by 14.94% and -13.63% year-on-year, of which the air conditioner online in February increased by 96.46% year-on-year. Exports performed better, with a year-on-year growth of 4.71% from January to February against the backdrop of last year’s high base (44.81% year-on-year growth in the same period last year). Judging from the air-conditioning production scheduling data, the air-conditioning export production scheduling in March increased by 13.7% compared with the same period last year, and the good export trend is expected to continue.
Haier and Gree performed better in export sales. In terms of brands, Haier and Gree performed better in export. From January to February, Midea’s total sales were 8.3 million units, down 2.4% year-on-year, of which 3.6 million units were sold domestically, the same as the same period last year, and 4.7 million units were exported, down 4.1% year-on-year. The main reason for the year-on-year decrease in export sales was the high base in the same period last year. From January to February, Gree’s total sales volume was 5.14 million units, down 2.1% year-on-year, of which 2.95 million units were sold domestically, down 13.2% year-on-year, and 2.19 million units were exported, up 18.4% year-on-year. The reduction of off-season cargo pressure. Haier’s total sales were 2.16 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, of which 1.06 million units were sold domestically, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and exports were 1.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%. In addition to the three major white goods, other brands are clearly differentiated, and both Hisense and Changhong have achieved growth in domestic and foreign sales.
Industry concentration decreased slightly. In February, the market share of Midea, Gree, and Haier’s total shipments was 35.10%, 21.58%, and 9.08%, with year-on-year changes of -1.4, -0.69, and 0.52PCT, of which domestic sales accounted for 36.46%, 28.65%, and 11.20%. The year-on-year changes were -0.12, -3.87 and 0.9PCT, and the export market share was 34.21%, 16.93%, and 7.70%, and the year-on-year changes were -2.29, 2.14, and 0.4PCT. From the perspective of concentration, the domestic sales of air conditioners from January to February CR3 was 80.74 %, a slight decrease of 0.54 PCT year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: From January to February, domestic sales of air conditioners decreased slightly year-on-year, while export sales performed better. Due to the impact of the epidemic in March, the recovery of air-conditioning retail is facing certain difficulties, but March is the peak season for traditional channels, and manufacturers begin to stock up for the peak season. The export situation of air-conditioning is superimposed, and both domestic and foreign sales and production of air-conditioning have increased. The price of raw materials has recently increased month-on-month, but the increase is less than last year, and the improvement in industry profitability is expected to continue.Due to the recent adjustment of the white electricity faucet, the valuation is at a relatively low position in history, and the margin of safety is high. It is recommendedMidea Group(000333)、Gree Electric(000651) andHaier Smart Home(600690)。
Risk warning: the risk of raw material price fluctuations; the risk of transfer of export orders; the risk that the recovery of the industry’s prosperity is less than expected.
(Article Source:China Galaxysecurities）