[Epoch Times October 18, 2021](Epoch Times reporter Chen Ting’s comprehensive report) Affected by the real estate downturn, energy crisis and sporadic outbreak of COVID-19, China’s economic growth in the third quarter fell to its lowest level in the next year.
According to data released by the Chinese Communist Party on Monday (October 18), in the three months to the end of September, the annual growth rate of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) was 4.9%, which was lower than the 7.9% in the second quarter. The increase was only 0.2%, which was one of the weakest quarters in the past 10 years.
This also means that after the 18.3% growth in the first quarter of this year, the economy is further slowing down, and the strength of recovery is continuing to decline. Among them, industrial production, total retail sales of consumer goods, construction and other real estate investment have all weakened.
Industrial output rose 3.1% year-on-year in September, lower than expected, lower than August’s 5.3%, and the slowest growth since March 2020.
In September, the growth of total retail sales weakened to 4.4% from the same period last year, down from 16.4% in the previous nine months.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, car sales in September dropped by 16.5% from the same period last year. The association said that production was affected because of chip shortages.
According to a Bloomberg report, Helen Qiao, chief economist for Greater China at Bank of America, said: “Investment demand is quite weak, and the power contraction has a serious impact on the supply chain.”
She believes that growth in the fourth quarter may drop to 3% to 4%.
Previously, many economists expected that China’s economic growth would slow in the third quarter. However, the power supply crisis in September, coupled with Evergrande’s worsening debt problem, is spreading to other developers, causing land sales to decline, and strict epidemic prevention restrictions continue to put pressure on consumer spending. On the whole, the severity of the economic impact has exceeded expert expectations, prompting more people to lower their annual GDP forecasts.
At present, China’s real estate downturn and energy shortage may be reflected in upstream industries such as steel and cement.
“In response to the expected poor growth figures in the next few months, we believe that policy makers will take more measures to support growth.” said Louis Kuijs, director of the Asian Economics Department at Oxford Economics.
Kuys said that he believes that the Chinese Communist Party may relax loan control and try to support economic activity by encouraging infrastructure construction.
The Associated Press pointed out that forecasters of financial institutions believe that the outlook for China’s economy in the fourth quarter is still difficult, and has cut China’s annual economic growth forecast, and they expect it to reach about 8%.
However, the CCP’s official goal is “over 6%”, which means that Beijing may still have room to tighten control.
The National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China stated in a statement that the economic recovery is still uneven, but the authorities will ensure that the annual economic growth target is achieved.
Editor in charge: Ye Ziwei#
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