On August 16, the National Bureau of Statistics respectively released the changes in the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in July, and the national real estate development investment and sales from January to July. The following data comments for this issue.
House price growth has slowed across the board
In July, the average price of newly built commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities was 0.3% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year, down 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the average price of second-hand housing was 0.1% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both lower than the previous month 0.2 percentage point.
The increase in house prices changed from a “stable slowdown” in June to a “full slowdown” in July. Regardless of the prices of new or second-hand houses in July, the year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates have slowed down. This is the first time this year, and the effectiveness of regulatory policies is being further released. On the one hand, real estate financial supervision continues to be strict, and personal mortgages have stopped and slowed down; on the other hand, the regulation of the property market in many places has continued to increase. For example, Shanghai has strengthened purchase restrictions and house price verification, and Xi’an, Wuxi, and Shaoxing have formed second-hand housing references. In terms of price mechanism, Beijing, Taiyuan, and Wenzhou have strengthened management for school district housing speculation.
Among all tier cities, the growth rate of various housing prices in first-tier cities has fallen the most. Second-hand housing prices have narrowed by 0.5% year-on-year, and both new and second-hand housing prices have narrowed by 0.3% month-on-month; second-tier cities have been relatively flat, with various housing prices increasing. The rapid decline was within 0.2 percentage points; second-hand housing prices in third-tier cities fell by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first negative growth this year.
Sales growth rate in a single month turned negative for the first time
From January to July, the sales area of commercial housing was 1.02 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, and a two-year compound average growth of 7.0%; the sales of commercial housing was 10.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, and a two-year compound average growth of 13.1%.
The year-on-year and two-year average growth rates of sales area and sales continued to fall from the previous month. From the perspective of a single month, the year-on-year growth rates of the two were -8.5% and -7.1%, respectively, showing negative growth for the first time during the year. The demand side was constrained by the tightening of housing loan policies (the cumulative growth rate of personal mortgage loans narrowed by 6.9 percentage points from the previous month), and the supply side was subject to the tightening of financing policies (the year-on-year growth rate of funds in place by housing enterprises further slowed to 18.2%, of which The decline in domestic loans expanded to -4.5%), prompting both the willingness to buy and sell houses to decrease. In addition, since July last year, sales in the real estate market have been freed from the impact of the epidemic and returned to normal, resulting in a negative monthly transaction growth rate in July this year.
Development investment remains strong
From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 8.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year, and an average increase of 8.0% over the two years. Real estate investment is still strong, and the two-year average growth rate is only a slight decline of 0.2%. First, due to the good construction situation, the cumulative construction area of houses from January to July is 8.92 billion square meters, an increase of 9.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate has declined. It is still at a high level; the completed area is 420 million square meters, an increase of 25.7% year-on-year, and the same as the previous month’s growth rate. Second, due to the large number of land purchases in the early period, land investment has begun to form. Usually the third quarter is the high point of land investment as a percentage of development investment.
Judging from the current land market situation, from January to July, the area of land purchased by real estate development enterprises was 87.64 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%; the transaction price of land was 512.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.8%. In response to the central government’s requirement to speed up the improvement of the “land price stabilization” work mechanism, the rules for centralized land auctions were adjusted in many places, and land transfers were postponed or suspended accordingly. As a result, the original “two centralized” land supply peak did not form in July. The area of land purchased in a single month was 17.428 million square meters, slightly higher than the same period last year, and there was no outstanding performance; the monthly land transaction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities shown by WIND caliber was only 33.445 million square meters, which was a single month transaction since last year. Second lowest.
It is expected that the market turnover will continue to grow negatively in August in a single month
Regarding regulatory policies, the regulation of second-hand housing and school district housing may continue to be strengthened. Since its regulation is not as direct as the new housing market, it is expected that more regions may refer to the second-hand housing transaction reference price mechanism, or strengthen the regulation of the real estate market order, and Promote in coordination with education reform.
In terms of market transactions, as the sales base rose in August last year, it is expected that the sales area and sales of commercial housing will continue to increase in a single month in August this year, and the cumulative growth rate will further slow down.
In terms of land transactions, in order to speed up the improvement of the “land price stabilization” working mechanism, many places will revise the “two centralization” land auction rules, the original pace of land transfer will be delayed, and subsequent land transactions may increase the amount of supplement .
In terms of development investment, it is expected that the growth rate of real estate investment will be steady but slower than other fixed asset investment projects.
(Chief Researcher Tang Jianwei, Senior Researcher Xia Dan, Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications)
(Editor in charge: Ma Changyan)