Analysis|PPIandCPIThe scissors gap continues to expand,currencyHow the policy goes
The year-on-year increase in CPI has returned to below 1%.
The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 9 showed that the CPI (National Consumer Price) rose by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month in August, of which food prices rose by 0.8% and non-food prices fell by 0.1%; PPI (industrial production) Ex-factory price index) rose 9.5% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month.
Although inflationary pressures are still not small and the inflation scissors gap continues to widen, the market tends to believe that the tone of monetary policy will remain stable and neutral.
PPI and CPI scissors gap widens
When interpreting the CPI and PPI data for August 2021, Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician from the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the CPI was generally stable. In August, all regions and departments continued to do a good job in ensuring supply and price stabilization. The consumer market supply was generally sufficient and prices were stable. Operation; Affected by the price increase of coal, chemical and steel products, the price increase of industrial products has expanded both month-on-month and year-on-year.
It is worth noting that the scissors gap between PPI and CPI reached 8.7 percentage points in August, a new high since the data.
ChinaMinsheng BankLead researcher Wen Bin said that price transmission is still not smooth, and the scissors gap between PPI and CPI continues to widen. However, from a structural analysis, it can be found that the poor transmission of PPI to CPI is mainly due to the fall in food prices represented by pork prices, while non-food prices have risen moderately. On the whole, the rising trend of bulk commodity prices has slowed down or has fallen, and the contradictions between supply and demand of individual commodities have led to price increases this month.
“The continuous widening of the inflation scissors gap between CPI and PPI may result in the erosion of profits in some mid- and downstream industries and increase economic structural problems. In the context of downward pressure on the economy, policy levels are even less willing to see a rapid year-on-year increase in CPI. Formed a stagflation situation, thus governing PPI andQualcommThe inflation scissors gap is more critical, and further loosening of monetary policy is constrained. “CITIC SecuritiesChief IncomeAnalystObviously think.
The tone of monetary policy will remain stable and neutral
Everbright SecuritiesBelieve that the next stage of monetary policy will be prudent, that is, MLFinterest rateHarder to change, DR007interest rateAnd will continue to reverse with a 7-day periodRepurchaseInterest rates fluctuate centrally. The probability of the subsequent PPI trend going down is much greater than the probability of continuing to go up. On the one hand, the subsequent contradiction between supply and demand will be further weakened; on the other hand, under the background of the overall poor transmission of upstream prices to the middle and downstream, the policy side cannot ignore the upstream. Excessive costs are eroding the profits of downstream companies, especially manufacturing companies; the restoration of residents’ balance sheets may have just begun, which will restrict the speed of restoration of residents’ consumption, and will also suppress the performance of consumer product prices. It is expected that the CPI will be weak in the short term. Performance will continue.
Wen Bin reminded that in the next stage, rising raw material prices and poor price transmission will still have an impact on enterprises. It is necessary to do a good job of inter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, and continue to implement measures to ensure the supply of bulk commodities and stabilize prices, which will cause greater contradiction between supply and demand. Coal, non-ferrous materials and other materials have increased their reserves, and further implemented the relief policy for small and medium-sized enterprises to help companies cope with the impact of rising raw material prices.
Obviously, he believes that the base of monetary policy will remain stable and neutral, and the policy interest rate represents the orientation of monetary policy, and the probability of interest rate cuts is small. The central bank has recently stated continuously that to observe the monetary policy orientation, one only needs to see whether the policy interest rate changes. Judging from the current Politburo meeting and the central bank’s setting of monetary policy, prudent and neutrality is still the overall tone of monetary policy, and we insist on refraining from flooding. Therefore, it is unlikely that the policy interest rate will be adjusted and the monetary policy orientation will be changed. There is no obvious decision support.
When talking about monetary policy at a briefing by the State Council Information Office on September 7, Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the central bank, said that China has always adhered to a prudent monetary policy, and that China’s monetary policy is still in the normalized monetary policy range. “.
(Source: The Paper)
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