After years of preparation and comprehensive evaluation and review, the three new nuclear power unit projects in Zhejiang Sanmen, Shandong Haiyang and Guangdong Lufeng, which have been included in the national plan of the Communist Party of China, have been approved. At present, the total investment of each third-generation nuclear power unit is about 20 billion yuan, and the investment quota for 6-8 nuclear power units will be as high as 120 billion-160 billion yuan.
While the rest of the world hesitated and gave up on nuclear power, the CCP stepped on the gas pedal hard on nuclear power. The third-generation nuclear power and the fourth-generation nuclear power have been launched one after another. In January 2021, the world‘s first “Hualong No. 1” nuclear power unit, Fujian Fuqing Nuclear Power Unit No. 5, was put into commercial operation. The CCP claims to be one of the few countries in the world that independently masters third-generation nuclear power technology; in December 2021, the world‘s first fourth-generation nuclear power plant The nuclear power station Shidaowan high temperature gas-cooled reactor is connected to the grid for power generation. The CCP official media regards these as a symbol that China has “has become a leader in the world’s nuclear power technology”.
An unnamed Chinese expert said that China is currently the world‘s second largest nuclear power country and is expected to become the world‘s largest nuclear power country around 2030.
As of 2021, there are 53 nuclear power operating units in mainland China, with a power generation capacity of 54.6GW. Nuclear power accounts for 5% of China’s total power generation, mainly distributed in the southeastern coastal areas.
Against the backdrop of intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine and energy tensions, Europe is reconsidering its attitude towards nuclear power.
On February 10, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will build 6 nuclear power plants from 2028 and start feasibility studies for another 8 nuclear power plants, officially re-embracing nuclear power. The European Union also proposed to classify nuclear power as green energy in a draft law published in January. Faced with the impact of traditional energy, all countries in the world have chosen wind power, photovoltaic and nuclear power invariably.
On February 7, the United Kingdom finally confirmed that China’s “Hualong No. 1” passed the British Nuclear Power Design Review (GDA), and issued the Audit Approval (DAC) and Project Acceptance Statement (SoDA) certificates. After the review, the British EDF Energy and the Chinese party held 66.5% and 33.5% of the shares respectively, and started the construction of the nuclear power project.
From January to March, the price of natural gas in Europe soared 45%; after the start of the war, there were only 25.2 billion cubic meters of underground natural gas in Europe; in terms of oil prices, OPEC warned of the “worst oil supply shock in history”, and sanctions will make Rosneft is expected to cut exports by more than 7 million barrels per day.
Previously, EU countries had formulated plans to abandon nuclear power, but under the current circumstances, nuclear power is more and more likely to be used as an alternative energy source. France, the Netherlands, Finland and other countries have made it clear that they will build new nuclear power plants. Even Germany, which is the most skeptical of nuclear power, has to consider postponing its nuclear abolition agenda.
In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear leak shocked the world. Even Japan, a powerful country in science and technology, has difficulty controlling nuclear accidents. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who once supported nuclear energy, announced that she would abandon nuclear power. But under the current energy crisis, countries are beginning to change the balance of nuclear power.
The CCP’s nuclear power step on the “accelerator”
Compared with the international hesitancy in “nuclear power”, the CCP regards the next 15 years as an important strategic opportunity for the development of nuclear power.
In March of this year, the CCP government work report for the first time proposed “active and orderly development of nuclear power”; the “14th Five-Year Plan” refers to the safe and steady promotion of coastal nuclear power construction, and the installed nuclear power operating capacity reaches 70 million kilowatts. It is planned that by 2035, the installed capacity of nuclear power in China will reach about 200 million kilowatts in operation and under construction, and the power generation will account for about 10% of the national power generation.
At the same time, in 2013, the CCP first proposed the nuclear power “going out” strategy, which has been elevated to a national strategy and promoted together with the “Belt and Road” initiative.
On March 18, 2021, the first overseas (Pakistan) reactor of China’s nuclear power brand “Hualong No. 1” was connected to the grid for power generation. Different from other energy investment projects, the construction of nuclear power plants is not only a huge investment, but also has a very long cycle, which allows the CCP to establish a close relationship with the recipient countries for decades. This will greatly affect international relations.
In January of this year, a report titled “U.S. Nuclear Energy in the 21st Century: A Policy Imperative for National Security” released by U.S. nuclear energy experts pointed out that the CCP’s seizure of the international nuclear power market poses a serious challenge to the U.S. in terms of geostrategy. Moreover, the longer the CCP’s nuclear power reach, the more voice it has in global nuclear governance.
In addition to self-designed projects such as the Qinshan Phase I Nuclear Power Plant, the CCP’s nuclear power development has also cooperated with France to build the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant, “introducing, digesting and absorbing” French technology. The core of China’s nuclear power product Hualong One is French technology.
Up to now, the scale of China’s nuclear power units under construction for several years is the largest in the world. According to the current situation, it is estimated that by 2030, China’s nuclear power scale will surpass that of the United States and become the world‘s largest nuclear power country.
The construction cycle of nuclear power plants is relatively long, almost decades. Therefore, as long as this country signs a contract with the CCP, within a few decades, due to the special conditions of nuclear power plants, it will maintain a balanced relationship with the CCP. And such a consequence, if the CCP’s nuclear power occupies a large share of the overseas market, what impact will the geopolitical structure and international relations have?
Challenges to Nuclear Power Expansion
Although some European countries have restarted the construction of nuclear power, international agencies believe that nuclear power is unsustainable due to safety concerns.
Mycle Schneider, lead author of the WNISR report and independent analyst for international nuclear energy policy, said: “It’s only a matter of time before nuclear power will die.”
Professor MV Ramana of the Nuclear Future Laboratory of Princeton University in the United States publicly stated in the media: “There are still some people who believe that nuclear energy will magically expand on a large scale in a relatively short period of time, but all the current proofs point out that this is a wrong expectation. If One of the best ways to get serious about climate change is to abandon nuclear energy.”
Due to various constraints, the nuclear power companies in the West continue to collapse, and European and American nuclear power giants such as Westinghouse and Areva Group have declared bankruptcy one after another.
The authoritative “World Nuclear Industry Status Report” (WNISR) stated that “the international nuclear energy industry is facing severe challenges, and the development of nuclear energy is too slow and too expensive to solve the climate problem”.
In 1979, the Three Mile Island nuclear accident put the brakes on the “nuclear power” project in the United States, and orders for more than 100 nuclear power units were cancelled.
Among the countries that have announced that they will abandon nuclear energy for a period of time, nuclear power is not optional: the United States accounts for 20%, Germany accounts for 30%, Belgium accounts for 55.2%, Switzerland accounts for 33.5%, South Korea accounts for 32%, Spain accounts for 22% %.
So what’s driving countries around the world to abandon nuclear power?
Mainly unsafe and unclean. From the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the Soviet Union to the Fukushima nuclear leak in Japan, neighboring countries are deeply disturbed. No matter the second, third, or fourth generation (although the CCP claims that the security has been greatly improved, the European and American countries have given up).
Not only nuclear leaks, but also in every aspect, such as fuel storage, fuel processing, reactor decommissioning, and how to deal with high-level radioactive waste, are all unresolved suspense. Radioactive nuclear radiation does not have any physical and chemical elimination methods, and only its harm can last for tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years before it can decay to harmless.
The 2012 UN Environment Yearbook pointed out: “The decommissioning of an increasing number of reactors is becoming a concern for the world.” Globally, hundreds of thousands of tons of nuclear waste have been accumulated, and there is no single The state has found a reliable way to deal with it.
On June 13, 2021, the American media revealed a surprising news. French nuclear power plant construction company Framatome notified the US government on June 8 that there was an “imminent radiological threat” at the Taishan Nuclear Power Plant in Guangdong, China, but the CCP did not want to shut down the nuclear power plant, so Framatome sought approval from the US Department of Energy. “help”.
As early as President Trump launched his offensive against the Chinese Communist Party, on August 14, 2019, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce issued an announcement listing 4 entities of China General Nuclear Power Group and its affiliates in the “Entity List”. That is, the four companies that do not allow American companies to leak technology to China.
The Taishan nuclear power plant is a Sino-French cooperation project, with France providing the technology and owning a 30% stake. What is doubtful is that, since the crisis at the Taishan nuclear power plant is imminent, it took two months for Framatome to submit its report to the United States. What if there is a leak during these two months? Downtime is the normal choice.
On April 5th, the Taishan Nuclear Power Plant’s chimney emitted radioactive gas exceeding the standard and alarmed. After inspection, it was found that the radioactive gas had entered the water-sealed pipeline. The CCP did not stop the operation and maintenance, but asked the French side to transfer a key technology. However, this technology is controlled by the United States. Famatong reports to the United States.
After the assessment, the United States determined that the incident did not cause serious consequences, so it did not transfer technology. On July 30, the CCP did not wait for the technology provided by the United States, so it had to take the initiative to shut down for maintenance.
The CCP has always been gambling, like a vaccine. It has not yet passed the formal third phase of clinical trials, but it has issued an executive order to let the people inject on a large scale. Just imagine, what would be the consequences if the CCP made a wrong bet at the Taishan Nuclear Power Plant? The tens of millions of people in Guangdong Province and Hong Kong are used to blackmail the United States. If there is any omission, Guangdong and Hong Kong will face immeasurable nuclear radiation.
(The article only represents the personal position and opinion of the special commentator)
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Responsible editor: He Jingtian