East China, Central China, North China, South China, Sichuan and Chongqing experienced rare high-temperature and extremely hot weather in history, and the power load in many provinces and cities hit new highs. On August 21, according to the WeChat public account of “Chuanguan News”, the Office of the Emergency Command and Leading Group for Energy Supply Guarantee of Sichuan Province issued a notice to activate the first-level emergency response to emergency energy supply guarantee in Sichuan Province at 0:00 on the 21st.
With the increase in electricity load, what is the impact on enterprises in the photovoltaic industry? In the long run, how long can the high prosperity of the photovoltaic industry continue?
In the short term, the silicon material market will maintain the current trend of slightly rising
The reporter noticed that on August 21, JinkoSolar issued an announcement on the impact of electricity restrictions on its subsidiaries, saying that the production lines of the company’s subsidiaries Sichuan Jinko and Leshan Jinko were affected by the shortage of power supply, and their production lines were reduced to Safe load operation. “As of the disclosure date of this announcement, due to the influence of the power restriction policy, the time for the above-mentioned subsidiaries to resume full production operation is still uncertain, and this matter will have a certain impact on the company’s 2022 operating performance.” JinkoSolar disclosed in the announcement.
Tongwei Co., Ltd. is the leader in the production of silicon materials. At present, the production capacity of high-purity crystalline silicon has reached 230,000 tons, and the production capacity of solar cells has exceeded 50GW. Previously, Tongwei Co., Ltd. responded to investors on the interactive platform, saying, “The company’s Leshan base operates at a security load to ensure the safety of devices and systems. At the same time, the company actively pays attention to the government’s follow-up relevant notices to ensure that the power situation can be restored as soon as possible after the situation has eased.”
At present, the shortage of silicon material is directly reflected in the price. According to the data released by the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association on August 19, the price of polysilicon rose slightly this week, and the mainstream price of monocrystalline compact was 303,200 yuan / ton, a month-on-month increase. was 0.33%; the price of silicone DMC rose by 1,300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price was 20,700 yuan/ton.
The Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association analyzed that it is initially expected that domestic polysilicon production in August will be reduced by 8% than expected. Considering that some silicon material companies have overbooked orders until September, the supply and demand relationship of the market in all links of the industrial chain will be adjusted in September. time will also be delayed. Therefore, it is expected that in the short term, the silicon material market will maintain the current trend of slightly rising.
The main links of the national photovoltaic industry chain maintain a strong momentum of development
In the past 10 years, China’s photovoltaic industry has developed all the way to the present. It is worth noting that under the background of the carbon neutralization goal of peak carbon and the accelerated application of global clean energy, China’s photovoltaic industry has ushered in new development opportunities, and a large number of enterprises have poured into the industry. According to statistics, there will be 28,000 new photovoltaic power generation enterprises in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 32.9%. Data by the end of 2021 shows that there will be 61,000 new photovoltaic power generation enterprises.
In the first half of 2022, China’s photovoltaic industry has achieved rapid growth as a whole. According to the operation of China’s photovoltaic industry in the first half of 2022 released by the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in July, according to industry standard announcements of enterprise information and industry associations, the main links of the national photovoltaic industry chain maintain a strong momentum of development, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 45%. In the polysilicon segment, the national output in the first half of the year was about 365,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 53.4%.
So, how long can the PV industry boom continue? In the view of the new team of Haitong Securities, the core point of the current photovoltaic industry is demand growth, and competition is a secondary contradiction. The investment logic of the photovoltaic industry has always been that demand outweighs supply. Every year, new companies, new technologies, and new production capacity enter each link. What is important is the continuous growth of the industry. The current expansion will be digested by the long-term growth space, and the growth rate From the perspective of 2022-2024, 2022-2024 is a rare period of three consecutive years of high growth in history. Not only components, but also the intensity of competition in each link will be better than what the market is worried about.
The new team of Tianfeng Securities believes that the growth rate of the photovoltaic industry is conservatively estimated at more than 30% in the next few years, and the head module companies are already relatively undervalued; at the same time, the long-term accumulation of brand channel advantages of module leaders can still ensure their profitability.
At the same time, the reporter noticed that on August 20, the official website of the National Energy Administration stated that while the deployment of the next phase of the peak summer season was being done, the National Energy Administration had begun to plan ahead of time for power supply guarantee measures in the mid-to-late period of the “14th Five-Year Plan”. In accordance with the principle of “moderately advanced”, do a good job in the mid-term evaluation and adjustment of the “14th Five-Year Plan” power plan to ensure the balance of power supply and demand in the country and key areas at the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan”. Its specific measures involve accelerating the development of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics.
Performance:Benefiting from the high industry boom, many companies’ performance is expected to be positive
Thanks to the high prosperity of the photovoltaic industry, a number of photovoltaic companies have reported good news in the semi-annual report. According to the choice data of Oriental Fortune, as of the evening of August 21, in the photovoltaic equipment sector, all media reporters from Guangzhou Daily found that 28 of the 47 individual stocks in the photovoltaic equipment sector had released performance forecasts/announcements for the first half of 2022, and 24 Net profit has achieved positive growth, and 4 companies have seen a net profit decline instead of an increase. Among them, 14 companies have doubled their net profit. The highest net profit is expected to increase by 2608.60% year-on-year, and the largest drop is 184.78%.
Among them, the two A-share photovoltaic leaders LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei achieved year-on-year growth in their performance in the first half of the year. LONGi Green Energy expects a net profit of 6.3 billion to 6.6 billion yuan in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 26% to 32%. Tongwei’s estimated net profit is 12.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 312.17%.
(Editor in charge: Liu Peng)