Huang Lichen: The market is waiting for the non-agricultural data, gold is still rising above 1700
In the Asian market on Friday, October 7th, the international gold trend fluctuated within a narrow range. The gold price opened at $1,712 in the morning, the lowest fell to $1,708, and the highest rose to $1,713. Currently, it is currently trading around $1,712. Gold continued to fall on Thursday, but the decline was limited. The price of gold remained stable above the $1,700 mark, maintaining a range-bound order. The fluctuation of silver was consistent with that of gold. The price of silver held above the $20 mark, and the trend range was narrowed.
The focus of the intraday market was mainly on the rise in the US non-farm payrolls data in the evening. Investors hoped to get the latest clues about the US economy, which led to little fluctuation in the price of gold during the day. At the beginning of the big gains, if there is no accident, gold is expected to rise for the second week in a row.
Regarding the non-agricultural data in the evening, the market currently expects 250,000 new jobs, which is less than the previous value of 315,000, and the expected unemployment rate is 3.7%, which is the same as the previous value. Strong signs are favorable for the Fed to maintain its aggressive monetary policy.
Gold began to lose momentum to continue its rise after its rally was blocked on Tuesday. This is because one of the main factors supporting the rise in gold prices, the dollar and U.S. bond yields, stopped falling and rebounded in recent trading days, re-pressure on gold prices. Fed officials delivered a series of hawkish speeches on Thursday, specifically:
Waller said that there is no reason to slow down the pace of policy tightening and continue to raise interest rates early next year; Cook said that U.S. inflation is still stubborn and unacceptably high, and interest rate hikes need to continue to ensure inflation falls; Evans Said that the current inflation is high and more restrictive monetary policy is needed; Kashkari said that the Fed still has a lot of work to do in reducing inflation, and it is still a long way from pausing aggressive interest rate hikes. The Fed’s determination to fight inflation has boosted the dollar and put pressure on gold prices.
On the daily chart, after gold rose close to the upper track of the Bollinger Bands, it faced resistance and began to oscillate. The gold price held steady at the $1,700 integer mark. The MACD indicator kept the golden fork divergence and moved closer to the zero axis. The short-term trend was still upward, but the KDJ indicator gold price entered After the overbought area, it began to turn downward, and the RSI indicator gold fork turned downward, indicating that after the gold price rose sharply in a short period of time, there was a need for adjustment in the trend. On the 4-hour chart, the price of gold fluctuated sideways, and the Bollinger Band narrowed sharply. It is expected that the price of gold will remain in a narrow range and wait for the release of non-agricultural data in the evening.
Gold intraday reference: The bottom is concerned with the support of $1,700, and the top is concerned with the resistance of $1,730.
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