Steel: The supply and demand of finished products are both weak, and the disk continues to be weak
Viewpoint and logic:
Yesterday, the overall disk surface of the finished material fluctuated sharply. As of the close, the threadMain forceThe contract closed at 4712 points, a drop of 1.28%; the main hot roll contract closed at 5063 points, a drop of 1.67%. In terms of spot, Shanghai thread spot price is 5170 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan, and Shanghai hot coil spot is 5300 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The nationwide turnover of building materials was 166,500 tons, an increase from yesterday.
Mysteel this weekResearchThe total output of the five major steel products in the steel city was 9.219 million tons, an increase of 430,000 tons from the previous month; this week’s total inventory was 17.09 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous month. The volume was 9.29 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous month, of which the consumption of rebar increased by 124,000 tons from the previous month. With the sharp drop in prices, the profit of steel mills has shrunk, and the spot spot profits are close to the break-even line, making it difficult for steel production to increase in the later stage.
On the whole, since July, the reduction in the supply side caused by the suppression of crude steel production and power curtailment has been relatively obvious. In addition, the country has imposed power curtailment and staggered production on steel mills, and overall production may decline further. From the perspective of consumption, since the third quarter, the country began to implement cliff-like controls, and investment in real estate and infrastructure was greatly suppressed, which directly affected the consumption of building materials. Under the active control of the state, the consumption of various industrial products, especially infrastructure industrial products, has fallen sharply. Although the short-term cost support of building materials is relatively strong, recent policies have frequently appeared, and short-term recommendations are mainly to wait and see.
Strategy:
Unilateral: None
Inter-period: None
Cross-species: None
Period and Present: None
Options: None
Concerns and risks:
The implementation and changes of crude steel production suppression, power curtailment and macroeconomic policies.
Iron ore: a huge earthquake in the black commodity plate, the iron ore plate surface rebounded
Viewpoint and logic:
Yesterday, iron ore was affected by the large fluctuations of black commodities, and showed a trend of rebounding throughout the day. The highest price was 699, the lowest price was 639, and the closing price was 683.5, which was 2.36% lower than the closing price of the previous trading day; open interest was 420,319 lots, -18555 lots ; On the spot,Qingdao PortThe intraday price of imported iron ore fell broadly, with a cumulative drop of 30-40. Current PB powder 805-810, PB block 935-945, super special powder 475-485.
From the perspective of transaction, the total transaction of iron ore in major ports across the country was 880,000 tons, an increase of 17% from the previous month. Forward spot: A total of 1.27 million tons of forward spot transactions were traded, up 74% from the previous month. On the downstream side, the total output of the five major materials of the Steel Union increased by 430,300 tons this week, indicating that the short-term steel mill production has resumed, forming a certain degree of support for iron ore prices.
On the whole, the shipments of foreign mines declined slightly last week, and domestic mines are expected to recover slightly due to the relaxation of power restrictions. The overall supply side fluctuates little; the demand side is slightly supported by the resumption of production by steel mills in the short term; iron ore in the short term Supply and demand are relatively balanced. In the long run, due to the carbon peaking policy, we will vigorously promote non-blast furnace ironmaking technology demonstrations in the future. In addition, the first mining area in Botswana, South Africa has begun to export iron ore products to China for the first time. In the long run, supply may increase. However, demand will continue to decrease, and iron ore prices remain volatile. The market outlook will continue to focus on the delivery of foreign mines and the resumption of production by downstream steel mills.
Strategy:
Unilateral: Neutral
Arbitrage: 01-05 positive set
Period and Present: None
Options: None
Cross-species: None
Concerns and risks: the implementation strength and extent of the crude steel production suppression policy, the risk of rising ocean freight, etc.
Double focus: Double focus is still open and closed, and the current spread continues to expand
Viewpoint and logic:
In terms of coke: Yesterday, the Coke 2201 contract was still open and closed. The plate was opened for a short time under the influence of news during the intraday, and then the plate was closed after falling. It closed at 3,201 yuan/ton, down 12%. In terms of spot, the overall spot market is operating strongly. In the early stage, Hebei, Shanxi, and Jiangsu regions proposed price increases, but steel mills have not responded positively. The increase is due to rising costs and shrinking profits. In the future heating season, some coke companies will suffer. The impact of environmental protection and other factors will be limited or eliminated, and the supply will shrink. In terms of demand, Shanxi has recently begun to verify crude steel production. Due to the power curtailment or production reduction policy of steel mills, the enthusiasm for purchasing is not high. At present, it is still focusing on digesting inventory, and some steel mills are still purchasing on demand. For ports, the port spot is temporarily operating stably. , The inventories of the two ports continued to decline slightly, and some traders mainly took a wait-and-see attitude. The current port price of quasi-level metallurgical coke is 4250-4300 yuan/ton.
Coking coal: The 2201 coking coal contract closed at 2503 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 11.99%, which is similar to the trend of coke, and finally closed at a falling limit. In terms of spot, the coking coal market was temporarily operating stably. The increase in output has been reflected, the market’s fear of heightened sentiment has increased, and some have slightly lowered coal prices. Under the guidance of multiple policies, the pit-mouth price has dropped sharply to 1,200, which is more than 600 lower than the previous period, and the control effect is significant. Coking coal is also coal, and a sharp decline in the price of electricity coal will affect it. However, considering the short-term contradiction between supply and demand in the coking coal market, it is still difficult to quickly alleviate. Because some coal mines in the main producing areas are mainly coal-contained electricity, the overall supply of the coking coal market is tight. In terms of demand, the downstream inventory is currently at a low-to-medium level, and coking coal still has a demand for replenishment. Affected by the tight transportation capacity, the downstream supply to the factory is not very sufficient; for imported coal, the downstream market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the early customs clearance vehicle remains at 300 -400 vehicles, but the impact of the epidemic has recently begun to appear, individual customs clearance ports are still in closed state, and traders’ quotes have been adjusted.
On the whole: in terms of coke, although downstream steel mills implement production suppression policies to reduce coke demand, coke spot prices are still relatively strong due to rising coke raw material prices, shortage of high-quality main coking coal, and low inventory levels; In terms of coking coal, it is mainly due to the lack of its own resources. The shortage of thermal coal continues to consume coking coal resources and the reduction in quantity. In addition, the downstream market inventory is low recently, and the overall coking coal is still in a strong operating state. The follow-up focus will be on the reduction of crude steel. The progress, the extent to which the demand for bi-coke is affected, and whether the thermal coal supply policy can bring about an increase in coal blending supply, pay close attention to the risks caused by frequent disturbances in the policy.
Strategy:
Coke: bullish after stabilization
Coking coal: bullish after stabilization
Cross-species: multi-coking profit
Period and Present: None
Options: None
Concerns and risk points: whether the consumption intensity can return, the scope and extent of implementation of the dual-coke dual-control, steel production suppression policy, macroeconomic policy, coalimport and exportPolicies, the latest policy developments of the industry and information department.
(Source: Huatai Futures)
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