Policy Summary
At present, the peak season demand is expected to gradually begin to materialize, and the copper price is also expected to rebound after the Fed raises interest rates.
core point
ā Market Analysis
Spot condition:
In terms of spot, the narrowing of the monthly difference between 10 and 11 contracts did not provide support for the premium within the day. The morning market opened, and the mainstream flat water copper quotation in the market was at a premium of 780-800 yuan / ton, and there was almost no price difference between good copper and it. Under the pressure, the premium has shown a downward trend. When it comes to the time of SMM quotation, the mainstream flat water copper is already quoted at 720-730 yuan/ton, the good copper is quoted at 740-750 yuan/ton, and Guixi copper is also quoted at 760-780 yuan/ton. ton, the mainstream wet copper offers were limited, and the step-by-step decline in premiums showed poor intraday trading.
View:
In terms of macroeconomics, yesterday’s economic data was still relatively sparse. However, as the Fed’s interest rate decision was approaching and the market’s expectations for continued substantial interest rate hikes remained unabated, the U.S. dollar stood at the 110 mark again. At the same time, U.S. stocks continued to fall yesterday, showing that investors Fears that aggressive Fed tightening could tip the U.S. economy into recession.
In terms of mine supply, according to Mysteel, the spot market of copper concentrate remained stable last week, the overall demand was still weak, and the trading was light. Shipments in November and December became active gradually, and the mainstream transaction of clean mines was in the mid-to-low level of 80 US dollars. The supply side is gradually loosening, but there are some disruptions. The risk of strikes in Escondida, Chile, still exists, and the epidemic still disrupts transportation in some areas. Inventories of raw materials for smelters are still relatively abundant. TC prices continued to rise to $82.5/ton.
In terms of smelting, the current TC price continues to rise, so even if the price of sulfuric acid falls sharply, the smelting profit should be relatively considerable. In September, the refinery maintenance was gradually carried out, but there is also a production capacity of 400,000 tons of Daye Nonferrous Metals or will be implemented. In terms of import and export, due to the closure of the import profit window last week and the invasion of typhoons, imported copper is still in a relatively tense situation. This also makes the domestic monthly difference to expand to 600 yuan / ton level. However, considering the situation at the smelting end, it is expected that the smelting output may gradually recover slightly thereafter.
In terms of consumption, last week, due to the influence of macro factors, copper prices fell to a certain extent, coupled with the continuous high monthly difference, which made downstream companies have a heavy wait-and-see mood, so the overall transaction was not very satisfactory. However, at present, the influence of the demand in the peak season of gold, nine silver and ten times may gradually appear, and the attitude of relevant supporting policies in superimposed terminals is still relatively clear, so there is also a chance for the consumption of the market to gradually improve in the future.
In terms of inventories, LME inventories rose by 2,100 tons to 107,200 tons yesterday. SHFE stocks fell 0.6 thousand tons to 8.5 thousand tons.
In terms of international copper, the international copper ratio to LME was 7.16 yesterday, up 1.05% from the previous trading day.
Generally speaking, this week is facing the Fed’s interest rate decision, so the macro uncertainty is relatively large. Fundamentally, there is a high probability that both supply and demand will recover together. However, since the current market is currently paying more attention to the situation on the demand side, the impact of consumption during the peak season of gold, silver and silver, as well as the recent performance of sectors with a large proportion of terminals such as electricity and automobiles Relatively beautiful, so the demand outlook may be more optimistic, so the operation is still mainly based on dips. At the same time, due to the continued strong trend of the U.S. dollar, it may make the copper price in the outer disk more obviously under pressure, so you can also pay attention to the opportunity of countermeasures in the inner and outer disks.
ā Strategy
Copper: cautiously bullish
Arbitrage: Hold
Options: Suspended
ā Risk
Dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise
Expectations of peak demand season in the fourth quarter could not be fulfilled
Huatai Futures Copper Daily 20220921:? The dollar continues to rise? But copper price fluctuations are relatively limited.pdf
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP