Steel: Both supply and demand are weak, and building materials support is stable
Last week, black commodities basically maintained the previous weak state of supply and demand, the output of finished products continued to remain at a historically low level, and the demand margin showed a certain improvement.On the demand side, after the Central Economic Work Conference, stimulated by the policy setting, the improvement of real estate, and the landing of infrastructure, the disk continued to rise to a certain extent.main forceThe 2205 contract closed at 4664 points, an increase of 3.05%; the main 2205 contract of hot rolls closed at 4772 points, an increase of 2.03%.
From the perspective of supply, the national average daily production of molten iron remained at around 2,136,900 tons last week, an increase of 51,800 tons from the previous week. According to the statistics of the Steel Federation, the total output of the five major materials was 9.35 million tons, a slight increase from the previous month, but still significantly lower than last year. The level of the same period indicates that production is still at a low level, and the production capacity of steel mills in various places is still in the recovery stage.
Consumption: Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased slightly from the previous month. The total consumption of the five major steel products was 9.16 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons compared with last week. A small increase. Affected by the easing policy on the real estate side, the consumption of building materials has turned from pessimistic to optimistic, but it is still in the off-season of consumption, and the pressure of steel consumption still exists.
In terms of inventory, the total inventory of the five major materials was 13.34 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons compared with last week. Although it is still at a low level in recent years, the inventory increased slightly this week. Among them, the social inventory was 14.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9% month-on-month; the factory warehouse was 6.2635 million. tons, an increase of 0.1% month-on-month. The internal stock of the thread factory is 4.2 million tons, and the social stock is 9.17 million tons. Overall inventories are relatively low.
On the whole, with the relaxation of the production restriction policy, the output of pig iron has steadily recovered. Affected by the increase in the price of raw materials, the cost of the long process has risen to more than 4,300 yuan. Due to the shortage of scrap supply, the cost of the short process has remained high, reaching as high as 4,900 yuan. Left and right, it has played an effective price support for building materials. For plates, the biggest price pressure in the later period comes from the increase in production, especially in the Tangshan area, which will bring greater supply pressure to coiled plates in winter. Considering that it still has high production profit, it is expected that the coil price will still be moderately repaired downward.
Unilateral: Neutral neutral plate for building materials
Cross breed: none
Concerns and risk points: the withdrawal of the production restriction policy, the trend of real estate, the price changes of raw materials such as coking coal, coke and iron ore, the implementation of winter storage in various places, etc.
Iron ore: short-term long and short intertwined, pre-holiday risk aversion
Southeastern Brazil was hit by torrential rain last week,valeThe production of some iron ore was suspended, and the market sentiment continued to warm up. However, due to the still weak domestic demand, port inventories still increased. As of last Friday night trading, the 05 contract closed at 710.5 points, down 6.5 points (-0.91%) from the previous week. In terms of spot, the lowest spot price of PB powder in Riqing Jingcao Port is 825 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week, and the super special powder is 520 yuan/ton, which is 2 yuan/ton higher than last week. As of last week, the basis for the 05 iron ore contract for ultra-special powder was -15, which was unchanged from the previous week. The average weekly turnover of iron ore in the main port was 1.0896 million tons/day, down 75,000 tons/day from the previous week.
In terms of supply, the total iron ore shipments in the world were 26.954 million tons, a decrease of 7.711 million tons from the previous month; the total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 22.354 million tons, a decrease of 560.50 tons from the previous month; the shipments in Australia were 17.147 million tons, a decrease of 4.070 million from the previous month. ton; among which, the volume sent from Australia to China was 14,006,000 tons, a decrease of 3,646,000 tons from the previous month; the shipment from Brazil was 5,207,000 tons, a decrease of 1,535,000 tons from the previous month. The total amount of arrivals from the 45 ports in China was 25.625 million tons, an increase of 653,000 tons from the previous month; the total number of arrivals from the six northern ports was 12.131 million tons, a decrease of 724,000 tons from the previous month. After the policy continued to loosen, the financing of real estate companies and the issuance of housing loans showed signs of marginal improvement, and iron ore improved slightly. However, due to the weather, the shipment and arrival of short-term iron ore decreased month-on-month.
On the demand side, MysteelresearchThe blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 75.77%, an increase of 1.56% from last week, and a decrease of 13.62% from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 79.89%, an increase of 2.01% from the previous month and a decrease of 11.74% from the same period last year;interest rate83.12%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.00% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.33%; the average daily hot metal output was 2,136,900 tons, an increase of 51,800 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 301,700 tons. With the completion of the national crude steel pressing production task in 2021, the resumption of blast furnace production has gradually picked up since the end of December, and it is expected that the production of molten iron will continue to increase in the near future.
In terms of inventory, Mysteel counted 15,697.19 imported iron ore inventories in 45 ports across the country, an increase of 92.09 month-on-month; the average daily port dredging volume was 312.17, a decrease of 5.48. In terms of weight, Australian ore 7383.82 increased by 156.24, Brazilian ore 5527.20 decreased 17.32, trade ore 9302.00 increased 116.2, pellet 440.56 increased 21.42, concentrate 1103.90 increased 16.5, lump ore 2206.84 decreased 37.18, coarse powder 11945.89 increased 91.35; Add 6 articles. Although the steel mills were still more active in picking up goods last week, the daily average dredging of ports fell slightly, and the arrival of iron ore at ports remained high during the cycle, so the total inventory was able to recover. From a regional perspective, the largest increase was in ports in East China.
On the whole, shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased significantly this week; although iron ore is still in high inventory and steel is still limited in the first quarter, the output is expected to continue to increase after the completion of the national crude steel policy, and then to The mine-end transmission, the latest increase in the production of molten iron from steel mills, shows that the substantial implementation of the resumption of production, the increase in demand has formed a certain support for the price of iron ore. At the same time, since the current steel output is still at a low level in the same period, the changes in iron ore inventories in the later period are more determined by the strength of steel consumption and the degree of production improvement. At present, macro expectations are warming and the consumption trend is improving. At the same time, the immediate profit of long-process steel mills is now affected by the price increase at the coke end, and the overall profit has shrunk. Considering that the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the restocking of steel mills before the holiday is expected to be gradually completed, the port inventory continues to be high, and the recent epidemic has been disturbed. It is recommended to wait and see in the near future.
Cross breed: none
Concerns and risk points: the implementation intensity and extent of the crude steel production reduction policy, the risk of rising sea freight rates, etc.
Bifocal: The spot of bifocal is still strong, and the carbon element is tight and difficult to change
Last week, the coke 2205 contract closed at 3,004 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton, or 2.97%. In terms of spot, sunshine,Qingdao PortThe coke spot is stable, moderately strong, and the cokeRizhao PortQuasi-first-grade coke was 3,200 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week; coking coal 2205 contract closed at 2,247 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton, or 1.88%. In terms of spot, due to the continuous low coking coal output near the holiday, the overall Inventories were low, and the spot price of coking coal rose steadily.
From the supply side: Mysteel surveyed a sample of 230 independent coking enterprises: the utilization rate of excluding eliminated capacity was 74.3%, an increase of 2.1%, and the average daily output was 540,000 tons, an increase of 2.1%, a slight increase from last week; coking coal, affected by the epidemic As a result, the average daily customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port last week was 95 vehicles, a slight increase from the average customs clearance last Sunday, but it still remained at a low level. After the New Year’s Day, some coal mines that had temporarily shut down for maintenance before New Year’s Day resumed production. However, as the New Year’s Day approaches, most of the coal mines focus on safety, and the supply at the origin is still tight, and the prices of various types of coal continue to rise.
From the perspective of consumption: last week, the national average daily production of molten iron remained at around 2,136,900 tons, an increase of 51,800 tons from last week. After the festival, steel mills accelerated the pace of replenishment, and the overall demand was supported. Tightening, it is expected that coke will continue to run strongly in the short term; in terms of coking coal, due to the large-scale conversion of coking coal blending to coal combustion in the fourth quarter, it is difficult for the coking coal consumption side to see a big improvement, but you can pay attention to the recent replenishment of coke plants and steel plants.
From the perspective of inventory: Last week, Mysteel counted samples of 247 steel mills across the country: the average daily output of coke was 45.9, an increase of 0.4, the capacity utilization rate was 86.8%, an increase of 0.7%; the coke inventory was 704.6, an increase of 15.9, and the available days of coke was 14.3 days, a decrease of 0.3 days ; Coking coal inventory was 1020.9, an increase of 14.5, and the available days of coking coal was 16.7 days, an increase of 0.1 day.
On the whole, the third round of coke increase has been implemented last week, and the fourth round of increase of 200 yuan / ton has already started, and some of the cumulative increase is 500-520 yuan / ton. In the short term, some downstream steel mills have an urgent need to replenish storage before the Spring Festival. , coupled with the strong cost support of coking coal, it is expected that the coke will continue to go to the warehouse in the short term, and the price of coke is expected to continue to rise. In terms of coking coal, the supply of imported coking coal is unstable due to the impact of the epidemic. It is expected that the supply of Australian coal will stop again after January. Due to the impact of environmental protection in some parts of the country, the overall coal resources are tight. With the large-scale replenishment of downstream storage, the price of coking coal is expected to continue to rise.
Coke: more neutral
Coking coal: more neutral
Cross breed: none
Concerns and risk points: whether the consumption intensity can return, the scope and degree of implementation of the double-coke and double-control, steel production reduction policies, macroeconomic policies, coalimport and exportPolicy, the latest policy developments of the industry and information sector.
(Article source: Huatai Futures)