In the October World Economic Outlok published today, the International Monetary Fund slightly lowered its outlook on global gross domestic product growth from + 6% expected in July to + 5.9%.
For 2022, the IMF confirmed the growth estimate at the rate of 4.9%.
The Washington institution motivated the downgrade with the bottlenecks in supply chains that are manifesting in advanced economies and with the worsening of the health situation in emerging economies.
“The global recovery continues – is the title of the WEO – but the momentum has weakened and the uncertainty has grown”.
The IMF cut its outlook, in particular, relating to the US GDP in 2021, by 1 percentage point to + 6%.
The estimates of the GDP of Spain and Germany for 2021 have also been revised downwards, in both cases by 0.5 percentage points, and of the GDP of Canada, reduced by 0.6 percentage points, again relating to 2021.
For Germany, the IMF now expects GDP growth of 3.1% this year and 4.6% in 2022 (for 2022, the outlook has instead been improved by 0.5 percentage points.
For Spain, the estimate for 2021 has been revised downwards by 0.5 percentage points, at an expansion rate of 5.7%; however, the outlook for 2022 was improved by 0.6 percentage points to + 6.4%.
For the United States, GDP is expected to expand by 6% (revised downwards by 1 percentage point) and by 5.2% in 2022 (revised upwards by 0.3 percentage points).
For Italy, the International Monetary Fund has revised upwards the estimates on Italian GDP growth in 2021 significantly. The upgrade is 0.9 points compared to the July forecast: the IMF now expects an expansion of 5.8% in 2021. For 2022, the Washington institution confirmed the previous estimate, equal to an increase in 4.2%.
For France, the Fund expects growth of 6.3% (revised up by 0.5 percentage points) in 2021 and 3.9% for 2022 (revised down by 0.3 percentage points).