Original title: In November, the growth rate of social financing and M1 rebounded, and the central bank “combined punch” to increase support for the real economy
In November, medium and long-term loans increased by 582.1 billion yuan, an increase of 77.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, the increase in household loans for medium and long-term is the highest since April this year, and at the same time maintains a year-on-year increase in the same period as last month.
On December 9, the Central Bank released the financial statistics report and social financing scale data for November 2021. Data show that narrow money (M1) increased by 3% year-on-year, a slight rebound of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous downward trend since February this year. At the same time, the stock of social financing increased by 10.1% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, achieving a bottoming out.
According to analysis by Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, overall, financial data in November showed that the launch of this round of wide credit has been slow, and the current downward pressure on the economy is more obvious. Bill financing contracted and M1 growth continued to be at a low level. This means that the central bank’s overall RRR cut in December is highly targeted, indicating that the regulators are paying full attention to the current operating conditions of the real economy, especially the increasing operating difficulties of small, medium and micro enterprises.
Looking ahead, with the continued fine-tuning of macroeconomic policies in the direction of stable growth, especially the recovery of the real estate financing environment, the growth of credit and social financing is expected to accelerate simultaneously in December, and the subsequent “wide credit” process will shift from government financing to corporate and government financing Two-wheel drive. This will be an important guarantee for stabilizing the macroeconomic market in the first half of next year.
It is worth noting that the central bank announced on the same day that it decided to increase the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points from December 15, 2021, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio will be increased from the current 7% to 9%.
Weak corporate credit growth
In November, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 160.5 billion yuan. Among them, in household loans, short-term loans increased by 151.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.9 billion yuan; medium and long-term loans increased by 582.1 billion yuan, an increase of 77.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, the increase in household loans for medium and long-term is the highest since April this year, and at the same time maintains a year-on-year increase in the same period as last month.
Wang Qing pointed out, “Since October, news about real estate-related credit margins has been warming up frequently. From the actual effect, on the one hand, the mortgage interest rate in some cities has been lowered, and the loan quotas of some banks have been loosened and the loan rate has accelerated. The boosting effect of housing loans is immediately evident.”
In terms of loans to enterprises (institutions), an increase of 567.9 billion yuan in November was a year-on-year decrease of 213.3 billion yuan. Specific to each item, medium- and long-term loans increased by 341.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 247.0 billion; short-term loans increased by 41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.4 billion yuan; the scale of new bill financing rebounded to 160.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase An increase of 80.1 billion yuan; a decrease of 36.4 billion yuan in loans to non-banking financial institutions. According to Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, the demand for financing in the real economy is weak, and the total amount of credit is not increasing. At the same time, the structure is not ideal. While the corporate sector’s loan growth is declining, bill financing is still rushing, reflecting the weak demand for corporate financing.
According to Wind data, the year-on-year decrease in medium- and long-term loans to enterprises (institutions) has continued for 5 months. Wang Qing believes that this is restricted by two factors: credit supply and demand. From the perspective of supply, although the regulatory authorities have frequently released signals of “wide credit” since the second half of the year, including the implementation of a comprehensive RRR cut in July and an increase of 300 billion yuan in small reloan lines in September, the bank’s ability to provide credit has improved, but Under the circumstances of greater downward pressure on the economy and accelerating exposure of credit risks in the real estate sector, banks’ risk appetite has declined and credit is more cautious, restricting the expansion of total credit. This is also reflected in the obvious bill impulse characteristics of bank credit in the second half of the year. .
Judging from the current monetary policy control, the central bank has increased its support for the real economy. On December 6, in order to support the development of the real economy and promote a steady decline in comprehensive financing costs, the central bank decided to lower the RRR on December 15, 2021, and will release a total of about 1.2 trillion yuan in long-term funds. On December 7, the central bank once again issued preferential policies to “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” and small and micro enterprises, and lowered the interest rates of re-lending to support agriculture and small businesses by 25 percentage points.
Wen Bin said, “The implementation of these policies and their gradual effects will help promote the steady growth of loan scale and optimization of loan structure, increase support for market players, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range.”
Social financial bottoming out
Preliminary statistics show that the stock of social financing at the end of November was 311.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year and an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Wang Qing pointed out, “This is the first time that the growth rate of social financial stock has rebounded since March this year, but it is still at a very low level since the data was recorded (at the end of 2003).”
In November 2021, the increase in the scale of social financing was 2.61 trillion yuan, 478.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and 620.4 billion yuan more than the same period in 2019. According to analysis by Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, the year-on-year increase in social financing was mainly due to the increase in the issuance of corporate bonds and special bonds, which offset the slowdown in credit; however, the slowdown in new credit this month has slowed down the overall performance of social financing.
Specifically, the main contributors to the growth of social financing include entrusted loans, net corporate bond financing, net government bond financing, and domestic equity financing of non-financial companies. Among them, entrusted loans increased by 3.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6 billion yuan year-on-year; corporate bond net financing was 410.4 billion yuan, an increase of 326.4 billion yuan year-on-year; government bond net financing was 815.8 billion yuan, an increase of 415.8 billion yuan year-on-year; domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises 129.4 billion yuan, an increase of 52.3 billion yuan year-on-year.
Wen Bin analyzed that the scale of new government bonds hit a new high during the year, mainly because the issuance of local government special bonds should be completed before November this year, and the pace of issuance has accelerated. At the same time, direct financing increased by a large margin, because the new scale of direct financing was relatively small due to the impact of individual corporate bond defaults in the same period last year. In addition, off-balance sheet financing decreased by 253.8 billion yuan, an increase of 49.5 billion yuan year-on-year. However, the structure has changed, and trust loans have maintained a continuous pressure drop, with a decrease of 219 billion yuan this month, an increase of 80.3 billion yuan year-on-year.
“Because of the post-positioning of government bond issuance this year, the new special bond issuance that usually closed in the fourth quarter of previous years was still heavy in November this year, driving an increase in government bond financing by 415.8 billion year-on-year, almost the same as the increase in social financing year-on-year. “Wang Qing said that overall, if excluding the government bond financing that has increased significantly year-on-year due to the tempo of issuance, social financing in November increased by 58.7 billion year-on-year only slightly. This increase will not be able to boost the stock of social financing. The growth rate rebounded, which means that the start of this round of “wide credit” process has been slow.
It is worth noting that on the day when financial statistics were released, the Central Bank issued an announcement, deciding to increase the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points from December 15, 2021, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio will be reduced from the current 7%. Increase to 9%. Wen Bin interpreted that, “This is equivalent to tightening the liquidity of the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market, thereby reducing the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi, which is conducive to maintaining the stability of the renminbi exchange rate against the U.S. dollar at a reasonable and equilibrium level.”
On December 8, the exchange rate of RMB to USD (CNY) in the domestic onshore market once hit the highest value since May 2018 at 6.3456, and the exchange rate of RMB to USD (CNH) in the offshore offshore market also hit the highest value since June 2018. The value is 6.3389. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the RMB exchange rate has deviated from the trend of the US dollar index. For example, the US dollar index rose from 94.1 to 96.9 in November, showing a strong trend. Under this circumstance, the RMB exchange rate still appreciated slightly, rising 0.3% from 6.4 at the beginning of November to 6.37 at the end of November.
Wen Bin said, “In the short term, the unilateral appreciation of the renminbi is likely to have an impact on our economy. Especially for small and medium-sized export companies, the appreciation of the renminbi will bring exchange losses.” In recent years, the foreign exchange bureau has repeatedly Remind companies to establish a risk-neutral concept, to base themselves on their main business, to treat exchange rate fluctuations rationally, to arrange the currency and maturity of their assets and liabilities very carefully, and to choose a hedging strategy that suits them.
(Author: Bian Wanli Editor: Bao Fangming)
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